872
FXUS63 KLBF 071015
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHT: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED, NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING (PRIMARILY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THEN
FADING AWAY BY MID-LATE EVENING).
- LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT: FOLLOWING HIGHS IN THE 70S THESE FIRST
FEW DAYS, A GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 80S OCCURS
INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID AND POSSIBLY
UPPER 80S IN PLAY BY MON-TUES.
- THE COMBO OF WARMING TEMPS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY
SUN-TUES COULD BRING AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
INTO PLAY.
- BEYOND TODAY'S HIT-AND-MISS CONVECTION, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA (CWA) LIKELY REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE ARE HINTS OF MAYBE SOME
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER JUST BEYOND OUR CURRENT VALID FORECAST
(AROUND NEXT WED), BUT THIS IS FAR FROM A SURE THING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER AS OF 4 AM:
ONCE A LIMITED BATCH OF SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTED
WESTERN ZONES FROM EAST-TO-WEST (YES, YOU READ THAT RIGHT) LAST
EVENING, IT'S ENDED UP BEING A DRY OVERNIGHT-EARLY AM ACROSS THE
CWA, AS ONGOING PRECIP IS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS. ALOFT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA REVEAL A SPRAWLING, SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE,
EXERTING ITS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS (AS
EVIDENCED BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ROTATING AROUND IT IN
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FASHION). AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHWEST NE, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
DIRECTION BREEZES PREVAILING NEAR THE LOW, WHILE SLIGHTLY
STEADIER NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES (5-15 MPH) PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN CWA. UNDER WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS,
MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO RANGE MAINLY MID 40S-LOW 50S.
- TODAY-TONIGHT:
OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY-THIS EVENING, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST, REACHING THE SOUTHERN KS/MO
BORDER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THIS TRACK, OUR AREA STANDS
VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THIS MORNING, BUT DID ASSIGN SOME LOW
POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN CASE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CAN SCRAPE
THAT FAR NORTH. BY FAR THE MAIN CHANCE OF PRECIP (ALBEIT ONLY
ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN NATURE) ARRIVES MAINLY MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET, AS MODEST LIFT ROTATING
WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH COMBINES WITH
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING) TO
SPARK A BATCH OF SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. MANY AREAS WILL
MISS THIS ACTIVITY, BUT LEANING ON LATEST HRRR AS MUCH AS
ANYTHING THE MAIN AXIS FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALIGN WITHIN THE
HEART OF THE CWA WITHIN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AXIS
(FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES/VALENTINE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH
OF THIS AXIS). WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE QUITE UNLIKELY, A FAIRLY
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COULD COMBINE WITH UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE/INSTABILITY TO PERHAPS PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH AND/OR VERY SMALL HAIL. AS MENTIONED, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST, AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS NO
HIGHER THAN "CHANCE/SCATTERED" TERRITORY. WHATEVER ACTIVITY DOES
DEVELOP WILL FADE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING, BUT COULD
LINGER UNTIL MAYBE AS LATE AS AROUND MIDNIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS
BEFORE THE REST OF THE NIGHT TRENDS DRY CWA-WIDE.
IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS, MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS
TODAY, MAINLY AIMED AROUND 70S WEST-SOUTHWEST, TO MID 70S
NORTHEAST. WINDS TODAY WILL BE A BIT BREEZY, WITH ESPECIALLY
LATE-MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING FEATURING EAST-NORTHEAST
SPEEDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH/GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WINDS RELAX THIS
EVENING AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS SKIES AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR. MAY NOT HAVE AIMED COOL ENOUGH ON LOW TEMPS
DEPENDING ON CLEARING, BUT HAVE MOST OF THE CWA AIMED 42-49.
- THURSDAY DAYTIME:
ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
REMAINING DRY AND ACTUALLY EXPERIENCING A RATHER PLEASANT DAY,
AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OH RIVER
VALLEY AND A PRONOUNCED, SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS OF RIDGING
EXERTS INCREASING INFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
THAT BEING SAID, DID LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR A MID-LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER A FEW FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A FEW MODELS (MAINLY HIGHER-RES) HINT AT JUST
ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY POP SOME VERY SPOTTY
ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, UNDER A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
IT WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID-UPPER 70S
(VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST). WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY TAME, MAINLY SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH, MAINLY FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN ZONES BUT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY IN
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE ANY GUSTS OF 20+ MPH WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE MAIN STORIES IN THESE LONGER TERM PERIODS INCLUDE A
CONTINUED WARM-UP, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
(ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-MONDAY), AND OVERALL-DRY CONDITIONS.
- THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY:
DRY THURS NIGHT WITH LIGHT BREEZES TURNING FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY (LOW TEMPS LOW 40S SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 50
NORTHEAST). ON FRIDAY, FAIRLY LIGHT, MAINLY SOUTHERLY BREEZES
PREVAIL AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S-LOW 80S.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
TO OUR WEST, DID MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAR
NORTHWEST (MAINLY SHERIDAN/WESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES).
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SCENE ALOFT,
ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL START TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SUNDAY DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ARRIVING TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARMING, WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH, AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE OVERALL-LIGHTER WIND DAY
(SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 MPH), BUT SPEEDS INCREASE FOR
SUNDAY...MORE SO SUSTAINED 15-25 MPH/GUSTS 25-40 MPH. THESE
WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH FALLING AS LOW AS 15-20% COULD EASILY
PROMOTE AT LEAST ELEVATED/NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING MOST OF THE
CWA DRY, AS THE GRADUALLY-APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH REMAINS
TO THE WEST (REACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES
TUESDAY). THAT BEING SAID, SOME STILL VERY UNCERTAIN SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR MAINLY WEST-
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA MONDAY-EVENING ONWARD AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES. PEEKING JUST
BEYOND OUR OFFICIAL 7-DAY FORECAST, THIS TROUGH COULD SPARK SOME
MORE ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER FOR WED-WED NIGHT, BUT FAR FROM A
"SURE THING" AT THIS RANGE. TEMPERATURE-WISE, FORECAST HIGHS
ACTUALLY TRENDED DOWN VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS, BUT STILL
CALL FOR A CONTINUED WARM-UP WITH MAINLY MID-80S MON AND
WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 80S TUES. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
COULD REMAIN AN ISSUE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- FOR KLBF:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, DESPITE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER WITH
CEILINGS RANGING MAINLY 5-15K FT. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM-FREE. HOWEVER,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 19-01Z THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THAT A PROB30
GROUP IS WARRANTED. SHOULD ANY OF THIS CONVECTION PASS OVERHEAD,
SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WIND-WISE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS
LIGHT/SOMEWHAT VARIABLE DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A
STEADIER EASTERLY BREEZE WILL KICK IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10-15KT/GUSTS AROUND 20KT. SPEEDS
WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
- FOR KVTN:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL HIGH CIRRUS AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AS LOW AS 7-10K FT. AS FOR SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, HAVE CONTINUED TO OMIT ANY FORMAL MENTION, AS LATEST
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD FOCUS AT LEAST 20-40 MILES SOUTH (THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED MONITORED IN LATER TAFS IN CASE THE AXIS
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTH. WINDS ARE STARTING OUT THIS MORNING A
LITTLE BREEZY FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST (GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20KT), AND ALTHOUGH SPEED WILL BACK OFF A LITTLE LATER THIS
MORNING, THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 10-15KT/GUSTS AROUND 20KT AS DIRECTION SHIFTS A BIT MORE
EASTERLY. VERY LIGHT SPEEDS AROUND 5KT OR LESS THEN ARRIVE LATE
IN THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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