682
FXUS63 KLBF 072336
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 2. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RETURN OF BREEZY CONDITIONS, FIRE
WEATHER COULD BECOME A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATTERN MAY TRY TO TURN MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED FROM AROUND OGALLALA TO NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRETTY HIGH BASED AND HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A
REGION OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THANKS TO
RELATIVELY COLD 500MB TEMPS NEAR -20C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 5-6K FT AND NEARLY ALL OF THE
CAPE IS CO-LOCATED WITHIN SATURATED LAYER WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO.
THESE FACTORS COULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS (35-45 MPH) AND
PERHAPS SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND END
ALTOGETHER BY AROUND 03-04Z. DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL BLEND GIVES LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER
40S (FROM W TO E), BUT WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW OF THE
COLDER LOCATIONS IN THE W/NW ZONES BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S.
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E AND EVENTUALLY OPEN UP INTO THE MEAN
FLOW ON THURSDAY. THUS, EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO REMAIN DRY AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE CAMS TRY TO TOUCH OFF A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER FAR SE ZONES WITH PEAK HEATING DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THINK MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN FURTHER
SE CLOSER TO NE/KS BORDER, BUT DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
JUSTIFY PULLING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE A
VERY NICE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND HIGHS IN THE
70S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW THANKS TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, EVENTUALLY SOME STRONGER
WINDS, AND THUS THE RETURN OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
COULD ARRIVE IN ABOUT A WEEK, THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN COULD BE
A LIMITING FACTOR.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S EACH DAY. PORTIONS OF THE
AREA COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP BELOW 20 PERCENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ON
SATURDAY AND VERY LIGHT ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCR
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SUNDAY (15-25 MPH, GUSTS 30-40 MPH), AND WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AREA
WIDE AND STILL SOME DRY FINE FUELS...AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME A CONCERN. ANY TREND DRIER OR WARMER
(E.G. LOWER 30S DEW POINTS AND/OR HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S) COULD
SEND SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY, SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
MODEL TRENDS. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REPEAT ON
MONDAY. IT'S NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT RAIN RETURNS
TO THE FORECAST AS UPPER FLOW TURNS SWRLY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER
SHORTWAVE. VARIOUS PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
SEASONABLY STRONG JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING THE REGION...HOWEVER, LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN COULD
REALLY INHIBIT RAIN COVERAGE/INTENSITY, UNFORTUNATELY. AS SUCH,
LATEST EPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MORE
THAN 0.1" OF PRECIP, AND EVEN THIS SIGNAL IS LIMITED TO NW
ZONES. NOT EXACTLY THE GREATEST NEWS FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR SOME
MUCH-NEED MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
PREAVILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE SOME ADDITION -SHRA/-TSRAS IMPACT
KLBF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN A
HEAVIER SHRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM A GUSTY
EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...THIES
LONG TERM...THIES
AVIATION...ROSSI
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