952
FXUS63 KLBF 081016
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
516 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHORT TERM (THUS-FRI) HIGHLIGHTS: ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES MIGHT CATCH A SHOWER OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA (CWA)
WILL ENJOY A SEASONABLY-WARM AND DRY NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE
PRESENCE OF FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
- LONG TERM (SAT-WED) HIGHLIGHTS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS: AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN (ESPECIALLY SUN-MON) AND TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL, AT LEAST ELEVATED/NEAR-CRITICAL (AND
PERHAPS LIMITED CRITICAL?) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COME INTO
PLAY (SEE DEDICATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ALL FURTHER
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION).
- LONG TERM HIGHLIGHTS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: VARIOUS,
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE MONDAY
EVENING-WEDNESDAY, BUT DETAILS ARE STILL QUITE MURKY. IF AT
LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WERE TO DEVELOP, IT PROBABLY
WOULDN'T BE UNTIL TUES EVENING-WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
IN THE WAKE OF WHAT ENDED UP BEING A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED SWATH
OF SHOWERS/A FEW WEAK STORMS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
AM HOURS HAVE FEATURED DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS UNDER
INCREASINGLY-CLEAR SKIES (ONLY A SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAINLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST COUNTIES. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND MODEL ANALYSIS REVEAL A BROAD,
ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING IN WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
FASHION FROM CA/NV UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE THE
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR SEMI-RARE, EAST-TO-WEST-
TRACKING SHOWERS/STORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO DEPART
OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN MO.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IS PROMOTING VERY
LIGHT/VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS...MAINLY 5 MPH OR LESS. LOW TEMPS
ON WELL ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 40S MOST AREAS
(OVERALL-WARMEST NORTHEAST), BUT A FEW FAVORED COLDER SPOTS
COULD BRIEFLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S. PROBABLY CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME VERY LOCALIZED/SHALLOW PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE (HRRR
WAS EARLIER KEYING ON GARDEN COUNTY VICINITY FAR WEST), BUT HAS
SINCE BACKED OFF.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- TODAY-TONIGHT:
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE THAT A ROGUE
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COULD TRY CATCHING THE FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST
FRINGES OF THE CWA MID-LATE AFTERNOON (ACTUALLY HAVE "SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES" INCLUDED FOR PARTS OF MAINLY
CUSTER/FRONTIER), HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA STAYS DRY AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SUPPORT FOR SPOTTY WEAK CONVECTION SHOULD
MAINLY FOCUS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITHIN SOUTH CENTRAL
NE/NORTHERN KS. WHILE THE DAY WILL START MOSTLY SUNNY, THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES (ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA) AS A HIGH-BASED,
"FAIR WEATHER" STRATOCUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DEEP MIXING. WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL
BE PLEASANTLY LIGHT TODAY (MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS FROM
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE BIT BREEZIER IN FAR
WEST- NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
AT LEAST 20 MPH (RH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
20% AND MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT).
TEMPERATURE-WISE, NUDGED UP HIGHS VERY SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS,
RANGING FROM MID 70S FAR WEST-SOUTHWEST, TO UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EAST-NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TRANQUIL ONE UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, WITH LIGHT BREEZES TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY/WESTERLY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH. LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED
SIMILAR TO VERY SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN THIS MORNING'S VALUES...BUT
MOST ALL AREAS BOTTOMING OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE 40S.
- FRIDAY-FRI NIGHT:
THIS WILL BE A GREAT DAY FOR THOSE WHO ENJOY SEASONABLY-WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND ALL CAN ENJOY UNUSUALLY-LIGHT WINDS WITH MOST
OF THE DAY LIKELY TO FEATURE SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS (MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST). AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL JUMP A GOOD 5 DEGREES
VERSUS TODAY, RANGING FROM LOW 80S WEST-SOUTHWEST TO MAINLY
MID-80S EAST-NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS
LIKELY TO GET THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT DRY, SOME MODELS (NOT
ALL) HINT AT SOME SHOWER/NON-SEVERE ACTIVITY BRUSHING INTO
ESPECIALLY THE FAR NORTHWEST (SHERIDAN COUNTY AREA) LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS IS NOT A SURE THING, BUT IF TRENDS POINT TOWARD THIS BEING
MORE LIKELY, EXISTING POPS MIGHT NEED RAISED A BIT AND EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE A BIT MORE OF THE NORTHWEST CWA. IN TANDEM WITH THE
WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS, LOWS FRI NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO HOLD
UP A BIT WARMER...MAINLY MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- SATURDAY-SUNDAY (THE WEEKEND):
WARM AND INCREASINGLY-WINDY (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) ARE THE MAIN
STORIES (SEE DEDICATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS). UNDER A SPRAWLING RIDGE
ALOFT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GOING DRY FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY BOTH DAYS, BUT OVERALL ARE
RELATIVELY SIMILAR BOTH DAYS, WITH MOST OF THE CWA AIMED
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S (WARMEST UPPER 80S MOST FAVORED NORTH).
SOUTHERLY BREEZES START TO PICK UP A LITTLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
(GUSTS 20+ MPH)) ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, BUT SUNDAY BRINGS
THINGS UP A NOTCH WITH LEGITIMATELY WINDY CONDITIONS (SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY 20-30 MPH/GUSTS 30-40 MPH).
- MONDAY DAYTIME-TUESDAY DAYTIME:
ALOFT, THE RIDGING FROM THE WEEKEND STARTS TO LOSE ITS GRIP AS
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH GRADUALLY ORGANIZING/APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. BOTH DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY (BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S). MOST MODEL
DATA (INCLUDING LATEST ECMWF/GFS) FAIRLY STRONGLY SUPPORT THE
ENTIRE CWA STAYING DRY, BUT THE LATEST NBM HAS MAINTAINED SOME
LOW- CONFIDENCE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY EVENING.
- TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL/PLENTIFUL UNCERTAINTIES OF A DAY
6-7 FORECAST, THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD/INTO THE PLAINS, BUT WITH THE MAIN ENERGY TAKING AIM JUST
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS. AT THIS TIME, AT LEAST MODEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE CWA, BUT IF THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS NORTHERN TRACK (ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL LACK IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE) COULD EASILY
LEAVE MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES). WHILE IT'S MAY AND A SEVERE STORM
THREAT IS DIFFICULT TO TOTALLY RULE OUT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM
LIKE THIS, FULLY AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING "PREDICTABILITY TOO
LOW" IN THEIR LATEST DAY 4-8 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS MUTED, THERE MAY BE CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF WINDS
AND HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY. LASTLY, WEDNESDAY ALSO CARRIES A RATHER UNCERTAIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING,
WITH NEARLY A 20-DEGREE GRADIENT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S FAR
NORTHWEST TO 80S FAR EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FOR KLBF/KVTN:
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION:
EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF IT. THE
PRIMARY BATCH OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONCENTRATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING, AS A SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
DECK BASED AROUND 8K FT. AGL MATERIALIZES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
VERY SMALL (PROBABLY AROUND 10%) CHANCE THAT THESE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE A ROGUE SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER (ESPECIALLY
NEAR KLBF), THIS CHANCE IS TOO SMALL FOR FORMAL TAF INCLUSION.
- WINDS:
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE HERE. SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY-LIGHT, WITH EVEN THE STEADIEST SUSTAINED SPEEDS
(MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING) ONLY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10KT/GUSTS AROUND 15KT. DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE DOWNRIGHT VARIABLE, WHILE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL FEATURE
A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 515 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FORTUNATELY, SEASONABLY-TAME WINDS THESE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A RELATIVE MINIMUM. HOWEVER, AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND WARMING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DOWN INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE,
WIDESPREAD, AT LEAST-NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
COME INTO PLAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME
(POSSIBLY WED TOO, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY HERE DEPENDING ON
FRONTAL TIMING). THE FOLLOWING BRIEFLY RUNS DOWN DAILY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SAT-TUES:
- SATURDAY:
ALTHOUGH ONLY MODESTLY-BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AND SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL RH WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO A GREATER
THREAT, THIS IS THE FIRST DAY OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-25 MPH ARE MOST FAVORED.
- SUNDAY:
CONCERNS QUICKLY RAMP UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS NOT ONLY IS RH
FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 15-20% RANGE, BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN SATURDAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH/GUSTS AT LEAST 30-40 MPH. AT
THE VERY LEAST, THIS IS A SOLIDLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
AT THIS TIME.
- MONDAY:
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY BOOST MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH SLIGHTLY (CLOSER
TO 20-25%), ANOTHER DAY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST
25-35 MPH COULD EASILY PROMOTE AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
- TUESDAY:
CONFIDENCE IN "EXACT DETAILS" STARTS TO WANE BY THIS DAY 6 TIME
FRAME, BUT WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE DOORSTEP, AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS COULD EASILY CONTINUE. VERY PRELIMINARILY, RH IS
FORECAST TO DROP TO AT LEAST 20-25% ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST 25-30
MPH.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
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