153
FXUS63 KLBF 082340
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ONLY SMALL AREAS OF 20% CHANCES
OF RAIN ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, AND OVER THE
FAR NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AMIDST
CONTINUED WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- PATTERN MAY TRY TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS IS LOW. SOME LONG RANGE
DATA HINTS AT A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE IN ~10 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VAST MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. THE ONLY CAVEATS TO THIS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY/BRIEF SHOWERS OVER FAR S ZONES THIS AFTERNOON, AND
PERHAPS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OVER FAR NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT GORGEOUS SPRING WEATHER WITH PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES, A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. EXPECT A SOLID 5-6 DEG JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN TODAY
AND FRI, WITH HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, A FEW OF THE FAVORED COLD SPOTS COULD
BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT, BUT WHAT LITTLE WIND THERE WILL BE WILL
HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO IT...SO MAYBE THAT HELPS PREVENT
THE PATCHY GROUND FOG LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
PIN THAT DOWN, THOUGH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
WARM AND INCREASINGLY-WINDY CONDITIONS, AND LIKELY RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIME FRAME AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE LATEST NBM FAVOR MID-80S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA BOTH DAYS, BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS
WARMER UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AT LEAST IN SPOTS. SOUTHERLY
BREEZES RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY FOR BOTH SUN AND MON AND WILL BE
SOLIDLY IN THE "WINDY" CATEGORY AT 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED, AND
GUSTS 30-40 MPH. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT LARGE- SCALE TROUGH GRADUALLY ORGANIZING/APPROACHING
FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. MOST MODEL DATA REMAINS DRY MON
AND TUE, BUT THE LATEST NBM HAS MAINTAINED SOME LOW- CONFIDENCE
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF
THE CWA FOR MONDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH SUBJECT TO THE USUAL/PLENTIFUL UNCERTAINTIES OF A DAY
6-7 FORECAST, THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD/INTO THE PLAINS, SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE MAIN ENERGY WILL TAKE AIM TO THE NW/N
OVER THE DAKOTAS. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, BUT LOW END (20-40%), RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE NORTHERN TRACK COMBINED WITH
LACKLUSTER MOISTURE RETURN COULD EASILY LEAVE MUCH OF OUR AREA
WITH A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES).
WHILE IT'S MAY AND A SEVERE STORM THREAT IS DIFFICULT TO TOTALLY
RULE OUT WITH A STRONG SYSTEM LIKE THIS, FULLY AGREE WITH SPC
IN KEEPING "PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW" IN THEIR LATEST DAY 4-8
SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF A THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS MUTED, THERE
MAY BE CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO WEDNESDAY DEPENDING
ON STRENGTH OF WINDS AND HOW MUCH LOW- LEVEL DRYING OCCURS
BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY. LASTLY, WEDNESDAY ALSO CARRIES A
RATHER UNCERTAIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN FRONTAL TIMING, WITH A SOLID 15 DEGREE GRADIENT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM UPPER 60S FAR NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S FAR EAST.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POTENTIALLY "WETTER"
PERIOD IN ABOUT 10 DAYS THAT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR S/E PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MORE THAN THE NW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
PRIMARILY DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...
- SUNDAY:
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RAMP UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS NOT ONLY
IS RH FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE 17-22% RANGE,
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN SATURDAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT LEAST 20-30 MPH/GUSTS AT LEAST 30-40 MPH.
SOME MODEL DATA IS TRENDING TOWARDS WARMER TEMPERATURES (UPPER
80S VS CURRENT FORECAST OF MOSTLY MID 80S), WHICH WOULD ONLY PUSH
RH VALUES LOWER, AND MORE SOLIDLY INTO CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
- MONDAY:
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY BOOST MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH SLIGHTLY (CLOSER
TO 20-25%), ANOTHER DAY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AT LEAST 25-35
MPH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL DAY.
- TUESDAY:
CONFIDENCE IN "EXACT DETAILS" STARTS TO WANE BY THIS DAY 6 TIME
FRAME, BUT WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
DOORSTEP, AT LEAST ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
COULD EASILY CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS FRIDAY SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...THIES
LONG TERM...THIES
FIRE WEATHER..THIES
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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