847
FXUS63 KLBF 091120
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY REACH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH MINIMUM RH AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
H5 ANALYSIS TONIGHT HAD AN AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC. A TROUGH EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWEST, THEN
WEST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST TO THE OZARKS. IMMEDIATELY NORTH
OF THIS FEATURE, AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM SOUTHWESTERN UTAH, NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO CANADA. WEST OF THIS FEATURE, CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGING WAS PRESENT OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WAS
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER COLORADO. WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH OR NEARLY CALM. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM
CDT RANGED FROM 46 DEGREES AT OGALLALA TO 56 DEGREES AT
O'NEILL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
OTHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE ONLY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST NAM12 SOLN DEVELOPS SOME MEAGER
200-300 SB CAPES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS AND
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS COMBINED
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI'S CALCULATED AT THE H850 AND H800
LEVELS WHICH, ALONG WITH SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. THE 00Z HRRR, AS
WELL AS THE WARW AND 3KM NAM SOLN DO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER NW NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THE
INHERITED FORECAST DID HAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS, EXPANDING THIS
ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND EAST INTO WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY
BASED ON THE 00Z HRRR, WARW AND 3KM NAM SOLN FROM THIS EVENING.
THAT BEING SAID, WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ONLY AS LITTLE
TO NO QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE AT BEST. OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING, EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, LOWS WILL REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS, WE COULD SEE
SOME LOWER 40S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
SANDHILLS. ON SATURDAY, WARMER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. H85 TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 80S. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY, REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON,
PER GFS AND NAM12 BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THAT BEING SAID, AM
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD BEGINNING
SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. H5 PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL DEEPEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, LEADING TO A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FEATURE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY ACROSS
THE FA WITH NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD MIXING UP TO
H750. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO
35 MPH, MAY LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, HOWEVER MINIMUM
RH WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT THANKS TO AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S. ON
TUESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FAR NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE IN THE DAY. JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL TO HIT 90 DEGREES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY JUST EAST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NBM HAS COME IN WARMER
TONIGHT WITH A HIGH OF 89 FOR VALENTINE TUESDAY. THIS IS ON THE
LOW SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE FCST. AS THE MEDIAN HIGH IS IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH THE 75TH%ILE BEING 95. WITH THE FRONT JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF VALENTINE, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE DID SEE SOME
LOWER 90S IN THE NW FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES
3-5 DEGREES WARMER AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION, MINIMUM RH
WILL REACH 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WHILE
READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 70S. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING FAVORS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ATTM FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LOW. BEYOND THURSDAY, THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS IN THE 8-11 DAY TIME FRAME WITH THE EC AND GFS SOLNS
TOWARD A PATTERN SHIFT AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MAY 17TH-20TH TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH A
THREAT FOR SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT UNDER 10 KTS. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL:
EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL. THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE SOME BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 10000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. ATTM, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT AROUND
10 KTS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THERE AFTER.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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