561
FXUS63 KLBF 301133
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- THERE'S AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, ON MONDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH, LOCATIONS OF IMPACT REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY
WHEN A WEAK TROUGH MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT COULD
PRODUCE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THIS TROUGH IS QUICK MOVING AND SHOWERS ARE ONLY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 16 TO 22 C RANGE. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO EASILY RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY. LATEST PROBABILITIES SUGGEST OVER A 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 85 DEGREES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE OVER A 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEEING A HIGH OVER 85 DEGREES. THEREFORE, COULD SEE
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMMINENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES
IMPACT THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF GREATEST IMPACT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW
80S IN THE PINE RIDGE TO THE LOW 90S INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PINE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
QUIET AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY NOTABLE CONCERN WILL BE
SOME SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES FILTERING INTO THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER, VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
THEREFORE IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE PREVAILING FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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