066
FXUS63 KLBF 310518
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND
- SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE POSSIBLE MONDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD, HIGHS IN THE
70S/80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPS DOWN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 183, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW, THUS HAVE KEPT POPS AT 25% OR LESS. A NORTHERLY FLOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING SMOKE FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTH. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE
GRIDS AS BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP HAVE NEAR-SFC SMOKE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS, LEADING TO GREATER CONFIDENCE
THERE MAY BE SOME VISIBILITY IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO
NEED TO MONITOR THE CHANCE OF FOG SATURDAY EVENING AS WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THEN 5 MPH, COMBINED WITH THE EXTRA
SMOKE PARTICULATES AND GOOD LL MOISTURE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD A TROF MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE
MODEST SFC BASED CAPE, THUS CONVECTION IS LIKELY, BUT SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST, AS THE BETTER SHEAR WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING,
BUT DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS, WHICH COULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE THREAT. GREATER CONFIDENCE EXIST IN A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL AS PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXIST FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT THAT
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR GREATER WILL FALL MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. ANOTHER BOUT OF COOLER, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 60S, WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY CREATE SOME HAZY
SKIES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM MORE DENSE
SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND
TRACKS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY, OUTSIDE
OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG
MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS STARTING MID MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SUNSET.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...RICHIE
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