786
FXUS63 KLBF 311802
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
- CANADIAN WILDFIRES COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PUSH
SMOKE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TODAY WHEN
A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA RESULTING IN SOME WEAK
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA (MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF US-183). SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS TROUGH IS QUICK
MOVING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND EXITING THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING SMOKY CONDITIONS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE CENTRAL US. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
TONIGHT, FLOW WILL INTENSIFY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SMOKE ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME, NO AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BUT THOSE SENSITIVE TO SMOKE MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME IMPACTS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY BY SUNDAY,
SMOKE WILL ALSO PUSH EAST, KEEPING THE MAJORITY OUT OF NEBRASKA.
IN ADDITION TO MOSTLY DRY AND SMOKY CONDITIONS, THIS RIDGE WILL
BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16 TO 22 C RANGE. THIS WARMER AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO EASILY RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY. LATEST PROBABILITIES SUGGEST OVER A 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 85 DEGREES FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA HAVE OVER A 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING A HIGH
OVER 85 DEGREES. THEREFORE, COULD SEE SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMMINENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES
IMPACT THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WOULD
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF GREATEST IMPACT.
BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE PINE RIDGE TO THE LOW 90S INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE DOWN TO
THE SURFACE COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITY TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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