540
FXUS63 KLBF 311935
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
235 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CANADA
WILL BE OF CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY
LINGER TILL AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- AN UNSETTLED WEEK APPEARS AHEAD TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND
THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SMOKE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CANADA IS BEING TRANSPORTED
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA VIA NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT
NORTHERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA STAND THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SMOKE TO REACH THE SURFACE. VISIBILITY IN THESE
AREAS COULD BE REDUCED TO 3 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANY NEAR SURFACE SMOKE SHOULD BE
PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
WEEKLY CAPPED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SURGING INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID-
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURGING COLD
FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR
MODE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT, WITH
ANY HAIL POTENTIAL BEING EARLY ON, WITH A WIND THREAT INCREASING AS
A COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHEAST.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWATS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN IS
NOTED MID-EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
MORNING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER, BUT THESE SHOULD END BY THE
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL FGEN WEAKENS AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO
MODERATE SOME BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE
COOL FOR EARLY JUNE WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY
WILL SEE SOME MODERATION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. AS
MENTIONED TEMPERATURES MODERATE FURTHER FRIDAY.
A NOISY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WITH
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. HIGHER DEW POINTS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORM
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE DOWN TO
THE SURFACE COULD BRING LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITY TO PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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