901
FXUS63 KLBF 011745
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
A FAIRLY QUIET SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND SHOULD GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END. OTHERWISE, THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL USHER IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20 TO 28 C RANGE. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO EASILY RISE INTO THE 80S TODAY WITH EVEN WARMER
HIGHS ON MONDAY. LATEST PROBABILITIES SUGGEST OVER A 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEEING OVER 90 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 ON
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BREAK
THE 90 DEGREE MARK AS THIS TREND HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST FEW CYCLES. WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, POTENTIALLY UP
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR POINTS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF DISTURBANCES
IMPACT THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY, CONVECTION WILL BE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY UP TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING LEADING TO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND
GUST THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET (MID TO
LATE EVENING) BEFORE STORMS START TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
STILL BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS, ROADWAYS, AND SMALL STREAMS.
NEAR DAILY ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS OF IMPACT AND TIMING IS LOW. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ALSO
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BOTH DAYS BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
LINGERING MVFR FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS MENTIONED SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED TO THE KLBF TAF LATER TODAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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