445
FXUS63 KLBF 011953
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
- AN UNSETTLED WEEK APPEARS AHEAD TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND
THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT STILL
WILL AVERAGE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT SMOKE ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 3 TO 5 MILES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THIS IS HELPING TO THIN THE SMOKE AND LIFT IT BACK NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS
MILD TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE STILL ON TRACK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST, WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS WEAKLY CAPPED WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BE SURGING THROUGH NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID-AFTERNOON. STORMS
SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURGING FRONT. THE FRONT APPEARS TO
BE A LITTLE FASTER NOW, AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS TO BE ALONG
OR NEAR A LINE FROM O'NEILL TO THE NORTH PLATTE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR MODE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT, WITH ANY HAIL
POTENTIAL BEING EARLY ON WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS. A WIND THREAT
WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE EVENING AS A COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHEAST.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWATS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN IS
NOTED MID-EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AFTER MID-EVENING AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. THE PROBABILITY IS HIGH >80% FOR SEEING ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. TWO INCHES IS RATHER HIGHS AS
WELL >40% IN PARTS OF THAT AREA.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
MORNING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER, BUT THESE SHOULD END BY THE
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL FGEN WEAKENS AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS IN THE OFFING AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO
MODERATE SOME BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE
COOL FOR EARLY JUNE WITH WIDESPREAD 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DUE BEGIN TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL AVERAGING SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL.
A NOISY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WITH
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER. HIGHER DEW POINTS BEGIN TO
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, AND COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
LINGERING MVFR FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS MENTIONED SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED TO THE KLBF TAF LATER TODAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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