407
FXUS63 KLBF 020911
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
411 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DESPITE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ONE MORE
DAY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 TO 28 C RANGE. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
TODAY. WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, POTENTIALLY UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR POINTS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT THE MID 90S. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE THE MID 70S WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS.
A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM) AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO O'NEILL BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY, STORMS WILL BE DISCRETE BEFORE FORMING
A LINE OF STORMS BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE,
HAIL AT LEAST 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, POTENTIALLY LARGER, WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
65 MPH WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T THE
BEST FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT, THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF
HIGHER HELICITY (OVER 200) WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THEREFORE, A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WHEN SUPERCELLS REMAIN DISCRETE ENOUGH TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET (MID TO LATE EVENING) BEFORE STORMS START TO WEAKEN,
BECOME WIDESPREAD, AND OVERALL MESSY.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY HERALD IN A NEW THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM:
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO
2.5 INCHES OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST
PROBABILITIES SHOW A NARROW AREA THAT HAS AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 2.5 INCHES WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING OVER THIS AMOUNT.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS, ROADWAYS, AND SMALL STREAMS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
NEAR DAILY ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS OF IMPACT AND TIMING IS LOW. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ALSO
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BOTH DAYS BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE LLWS FROM
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. USED THE
SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION GIVEN FROM HRRR GUIDANCE TO TIME THE LOW
LEVEL JET, WHICH BRINGS IMPACTS TO BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT. BY
MORNING, SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BECOMING QUITE GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON, GENERATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TIMING
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH RAINS
LASTING INTO THE NIGHT. AS THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT THE TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...RICHIE
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