724
FXUS63 KLBF 021741
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT
WEEK ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY, WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTY, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION.
DESPITE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY, THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ONE MORE
DAY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 TO 28 C RANGE. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
TODAY. WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, POTENTIALLY UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR POINTS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES
COULD HIT THE MID 90S. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM RISING
MUCH ABOVE THE MID 70S WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS.
A COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM) AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO O'NEILL BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY, STORMS WILL BE DISCRETE BEFORE FORMING
A LINE OF STORMS BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE,
HAIL AT LEAST 1 INCH IN DIAMETER, POTENTIALLY LARGER, WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LINE, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
65 MPH WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T THE
BEST FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT, THERE WILL BE A NARROW RIBBON OF
HIGHER HELICITY (OVER 200) WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THEREFORE, A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WHEN SUPERCELLS REMAIN DISCRETE ENOUGH TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET (MID TO LATE EVENING) BEFORE STORMS START TO WEAKEN,
BECOME WIDESPREAD, AND OVERALL MESSY.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY HERALD IN A NEW THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM:
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO
2.5 INCHES OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST
PROBABILITIES SHOW A NARROW AREA THAT HAS AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 2.5 INCHES WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING OVER THIS AMOUNT.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS, ROADWAYS, AND SMALL STREAMS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
NEAR DAILY ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS OF IMPACT AND TIMING IS LOW. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ALSO
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BOTH DAYS BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
RETURNING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, INCLUDING KVTN AND
KLBF TERMINALS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL TURN
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUST UP TO
25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUST OF 20 TO 25 KTS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IN THE MORNING HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NEZ038-059.
UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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