764
FXUS63 KLBF 040857
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM STARTING TODAY
AS A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST INTO TONIGHT IMPACTING MAINLY LOCATIONS WEST OF US-83.
THE NEXT, SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION. A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGHER INSTABILITY COULD
RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
STILL, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SMALLER HAIL OR STRONGER WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FOR TEMPERATURES...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
KEEPING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
NEAR DAILY ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS OF IMPACT AND TIMING IS LOW ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER SHOT OF SOME RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO QUIETER AND
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED RAIN AND CLOUDS AS WELL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL -RA/-SHRA AFFECTING TERMINALS OVER THE SANDHILLS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GRADUAL LOWERING CIGS TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO, POTENTIAL FOR SEEING IMPACTS BEYOND VFR
REMAIN LOW. RAIN AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR DURING THE DAY WITH ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE
TERMINALS SO WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT MENTION. PROBABILISTIC DATA
SUPPORTS THIS NOTION AS WELL. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND EVALUATE
FOR ANY NEED TO INCREASE IMPACTS AT EITHER TERMINAL BUT
PARTICULARLY VTN.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...NMJ
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