881
FXUS63 KLBF 042039
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SHOWERS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIKELY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE AREA THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
-MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
-COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, BUT A LOT OF
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT AT THIS TIME AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THEN DRY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
AND TO THE EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS
WYOMING AND ENTER WESTERN NEBRASKA BY TOMORROW MORNING. ASCENT WILL
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY WILL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH LOW CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA. REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
THERE IS SOME VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS.
IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WHICH DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY
SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. LOW-LEVEL LAPS RATES WILL BE MUCH
STEEPER IN THIS AREA TO THE WEST OF THE CLOUD COVER. BETTER HEATING
ALSO ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A TRAINING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CLEARING LINE.
IF IT DEVELOPS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD CLIP PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AGAIN, INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE SMALL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE AN STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH DRIER A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF
OUR AREA AT THIS POINT.
SUNDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BEAR NORMAL SATURDAY, THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOWER CEILINGS
(MOSTLY MVFR)AND LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, MAINLY UNDER 10 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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