450
FXUS63 KLBF 230534
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS, THOUGH A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, USHERING IN A
RETURN OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS
IN 70S TO 80S) AND NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE AREA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOCATION BEING
DETERMINED BY THE POSITIONING OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
CURRENTLY, A COLD FRONT IS BISECTING THE AREA, LOCATED FROM NEAR
IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE TO ATKINSON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, AND IS
LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 80S, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR HWY 20, WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 70S DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
APPEARS THIS WILL COME IN TWO DISTINCT REGIMES. THE FIRST, LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL COME IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HERE, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 4-5 PM CDT, ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE, AS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONGEST ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
NOTED. THERE IS ALSO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF GREATER INSTABILITY
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE AS WELL, WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
POOLING AMID WEAKER VERTICAL MIXING. WITHIN THIS REGIME, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO. SOUNDINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT SHOW DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES, SUGGESTING
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT IN
DISCRETE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY ON ANY STORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG
OR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED. ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY HOW STORMS CAN INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY, THOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE UNTIL LATE EVENING
WHEN A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LEADS TO BETTER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A THREAT FOR LANDSPOUTS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH MEAGER LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY DOES SHED SOME DOUBT ON THIS.
FURTHER WEST, A MUCH MORE SHEARED REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST PREVALENT WITH
THESE SUPERCELLS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL, WITH THE
EXPECTED STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. BY LATER EVENING AND TONIGHT, A
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT ANY DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AMID THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
CONVECTION BEGINS TO WANE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH THE
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO 80S. AN ADDITIONAL
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW HOWEVER, WITH
INSTABILITY REMAINING MEAGER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, AS BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. THIS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING AMPLE MOISTURE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, WITH PWATS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5"
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK AS WELL, THOUGH FLOW ALOFT DOES BEGIN TO
TRANSITION MORE ZONAL. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
RESPECT TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER, AS SOME THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE VICINITY
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OF 30-40 KTS. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT, AND BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING BEYOND THE EFFECTIVE TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...RICHIE
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