862
FXUS63 KLBF 231726
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETURN TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITH WIND AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE SEVERE RISK AND SEVERE
THREATS ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL POSITION.
- WITH THE NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WE ARE SEEING PRETTY WIDESPREAD
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. TODAY, WITH THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CAPE AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE NORTH PLATTE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
EVENING. A SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE THE SEVERE RISK IS GREATER. STILL, A FEW
STORMS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY COULD ENTER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, INTRODUCING A RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL. WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT IS RELATIVELY LIMITED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOLER
SIDE THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR
LATE JUNE IN NORTH PLATTE IS AROUND 86 TO 87 DEGREES. SO, WHILE WE
WARM UP AGAIN, IT SHOULD NOT BE AS HOT AS THIS LAST STRETCH.
OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE REGION IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES APPEAR
GREATER FURTHER WEST, WHERE FORCING IS BETTER, AND WITH THIS SET UP
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY. HOWEVER, STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION BRINGS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. ALSO WORTH MENTION IS THAT A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, WHICH COULD FAVOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT ON TUESDAY, GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED FRONT. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE FINER SCALE DETAILS TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE
THREATS, AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN FRONTAL POSITION WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACTS ON STORM MODE. BEYOND TUESDAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AGAIN, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
FOR FORCING, BUT AMPLE CAPE, SHEAR, AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
AT LEAST SET THE INGREDIENTS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO WORTH MENTION IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE NEAR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUGHLY INCH TO TWO AND HALF
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE RAIN, SOME LOCATIONS MAY
POTENTIALLY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BROKEN CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 5000 TO 7000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING, BECOMING MVFR AROUND 06Z.
CEILINGS WILL THEN REMAIN AT THE 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST, THEN EAST WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL:
EXPECT A FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.
SKIES WILL CLOUD UP OVERNIGHT WITH 3000 FT AGL CEILINGS FALLING
OFF TO AROUND 1200 FT AGL BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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