260
FXUS63 KLBF 240556
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
AND THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXISTS OVER
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FURTHER EAST. THE SEVERE THREAT IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF A WARM FRONT.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD WITH READINGS REACHING THE 90S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. FURTHER WEST, A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA, SOUTHWEST TO
CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH, SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA, NORTHEASTERN ALBERTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA. ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS,
NORTHEAST TO WESTERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM JUST WEST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS TO NORTH OF NEBRASKA CITY
NEBRASKA. A BROAD SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDED NORTH OF THE FRONT
TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM IMPERIAL, TO NORTH PLATTE, TO O'NEILL.
WITHIN THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. NORTH OF THE CLOUDS, READINGS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
THE BEFORE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. BY 12Z TUESDAY, THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO LIE ALONG INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATER TONIGHT, AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AN ELEVATED H7 FRONT FROM
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SO, AFTER LARGELY DRY POPS
EARLY EVENING, THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION, LOW CLOUDINESS APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT, THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ATTM,
INDICATIONS FOR DENSE FOG ARE NOT THERE. HOWEVER, I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES OCCUR SOUTH OF
I-80 TUESDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH, POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE NE/KS BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ATTM, THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL MOST LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OTHER FOCAL
POINT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST INVOF CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY, WHICH EXTENDS OVER EASTERN WYOMING
INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. WITH THE FORMER AREA OF STORM
FOCUS, THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH A
TORNADIC THREAT ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
THREAT NORTH OF THE FRONT. NO DOUBT, THE LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY WILL BE KEY AS TO
WERE THE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS. THE LATEST 18Z HRRR THIS
AFTERNOON HAS THE WARM FRONT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES
WITH GOOD CURVATURE IN THE FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND A CORRIDOR OF
2500 TO 3000 J/KG CAPES AND ZERO CIN BY 21Z. CONVECTION OFF TO
THE WEST, WILL BE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
PANHANDLE ACTIVITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING, LEADING TO A WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT LATER TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS
ACTIVITY CROSSES THE SANDHILLS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD QPF'S OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, APPEAR PROBABLE PER THE LATEST WPC QPF FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS
ON WEDNESDAY. BY EVENING, INITIATION MAY TAKE PLACE IN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE, TRACKING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ONCE AGAIN, INITIATION
SEEMS TO KEY IN ON THE WARM FRONT WHICH THE LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN 48 HOURS OUT. FOR NOW, HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE A COUPLE OF MAINLY DRY
DAYS ACROSS THE AREA, AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE EAST BREAKS
DOWN AND A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S
THURSDAY, THEN 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT DECENT THREAT
FOR STORMS, ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH,
CROSSES FAR SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL INCLUDE
BOTH THE LBF AND VTN TERMINALS. BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY BUT PERHAPS AT BEST TO LOW-END
VFR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEANED ON HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE FOR TSRA TIMING. BELIEVE
GREATEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND AS
A RESULT, INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS AND REEVALUATE THIS PARTICULAR THREAT. BELIEVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TERMINALS AROUND THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...NMJ
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