154
FXUS63 KLBF 240828
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER,
MUCH OF THE SEVERE RISK AND THREATS REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.
- SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH WIND
AND HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
PORTIONS OF THE REGION RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES,
OR MORE, OF RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MOST OF THE REGION IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT
WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR THESE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE LIFTING WARM FRONT, AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION. INSTABILITY BEGINS
TO GROW ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS SET UP IS SUPPORTIVE OF INITIAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, INCREASING THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE STORMS UNDERGO
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE OF STORMS AS THEY TRACK EAST, INCREASING
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
THIS EVENING, SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO
RISK AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT RIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S AGAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDING SUGGEST A TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS FAVORABLE THAN TODAY'S ENVIRONMENT. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, HOWEVER THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
THESE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EXPECTED TO SEE AT LEAST AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WE COULD
SEE AREAS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS NEXT BATCH OF
STORMS. WITH THE RAIN MOSTLY COMING FROM THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ON THIS NOTE, IT IS
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY
AND TOMORROW, WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
REALIZED, WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING OF LOWER LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY, USHERING IN A WARMER, DRY PATTERN FOR A
FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE ON THURSDAY, TYPICALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS FRONT TRACKS THROUGH, IT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK THROUGH AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW, BUT
FOR NOW, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF MORE SEASONAL HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO DEGRADED
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL INCLUDE
BOTH THE LBF AND VTN TERMINALS. BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY BUT PERHAPS AT BEST TO LOW-END
VFR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LEANED ON HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE FOR TSRA TIMING. BELIEVE
GREATEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND AS
A RESULT, INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS AND REEVALUATE THIS PARTICULAR THREAT. BELIEVE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TERMINALS AROUND THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...NMJ
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