749
FXUS63 KLBF 242004
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FURTHER EAST.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STORM MODES APPEAR MESSY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT OVER SW PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ON WEDNESDAY, THE GREATEST RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
- CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY, THEN 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND BEYOND
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OVER NW NEBRASKA FRIDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE OVER VIRGINIA AND
WEST VIRGINIA. FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST, A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS, NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA AND WYOMING. WITHIN THIS
FLOW, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED AND EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE, AND WAS LOCATED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE KS/NEBR. BORDER AS OF 2 PM CT. WINDS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WERE FROM THE EAST, WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE NOTED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CT RANGED FROM 61 DEGREES AT
O'NEILL TO 79 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THERE ARE TWO
AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE FIRST AREA IS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
THE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LATTER AREA WILL BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. IF DEVELOPMENT CAN BE REALIZED, BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A DECENT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. WITH
STEERING WINDS BEING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THE WARM FRONT
BEING ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST, STORMS WHICH MIGRATE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY, HAVE A DECENT POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
THIS ACTIVITY, IF IT MATERIALIZES, WILL EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED
BY STORMS WHICH HAVE INITIATED OVER THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO
AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. WITH THE FIRST AREA OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT (NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WYOMING), LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE INITIAL THREAT, MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS EAST AND MERGES WITH THE POSSIBLE STORMS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE OF A
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WIND ISSUE. AFTER THE MERGER, CONVECTION
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY, A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CAP NOTED,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CONVECTION AND STORM MODE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS "MESSY"
PER THE LATEST CAM SOLNS FROM THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO IF ANY LONE
STORMS CAN DEVELOP, WE COULD SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS FAIRLY MARGINAL
ATTM. AS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT BEING
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS, HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MIDDLE 80S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CONUS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL FORCE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MAIN
THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS NORTH OF THE AREA, COULDN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY STORM OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 HAS A 15 PERCENT SEVERE
RISK OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ON SATURDAY AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH FORCES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER SATURDAY, LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY OR WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT AGL TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
AROUND 1500 FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL HANDLE THE
MENTION FOR THUNDER WITH A TEMPO GROUP WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
FROM 23Z TO 03Z THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AND
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: EXPECT CEILINGS OF 2000 TO 3500 FT AGL
TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS PERIODICALLY DOWN TO 2500 FT AGL. CEILINGS WILL
FALL BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 08Z TONIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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