579
FXUS63 KLBF 251143
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
643 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE
WILL BE THE AREA OF FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 1500-2000+ J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 83. THIS AREA WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THERE WILL
BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF HWY 83 WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.
THERE WILL ALSO BE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, HOWEVER THE GREATEST AREA FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
WELLFLEET TO SPENCER AND EASTWARD. THAT BEING SAID ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS PWAT VALUES OF 1.25 OR
GREATER, WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE, DECISION WAS MADE TO PUT
OUT A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR
THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES, CHASE, HAYES AND FRONTIER AS
LOCATIONS ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES SAW 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HP THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND, WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS A SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS WESTERN SD, BUT COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS EXTEND AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY,
COOLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON,
TERMINALS IMPACTED BY STORMS WILL SEE ERRATIC WIND GUST AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO
10 KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ069>071.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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