025
FXUS63 KLBF 252004
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSHKOSH TO O'NEILL. GUSTY WINDS
IS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT OVER CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
- CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THURSDAY, THEN 90S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND BEYOND
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN SANDHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND WAS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST, A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO, SOUTH TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS, BROAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED
FROM SOUTEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, TO WESTERN
KANSAS, EASTERN COLORADO AND NEBRASKA. WITHIN THIS FLOW, SEVERAL
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED AND HAVE LED TO A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO, INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS, GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM ALLIANCE TO
THEDFORD TO SOUTH OF O'NEILL. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
AREA AND 2 PM CT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 DEGREES AT THEDFORD TO
78 DEGREES AT BROKEN BOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TRACK TO
TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT, ENDING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOOKING AT THE LATEST HRRR, 3KM NAM, AND WARW, TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FIRST DEVELOPS ON THE EASTERN PERIPIHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD BAND, EXTENDING
FROM NEAR MCCOOK, TO BROKEN BOW, TO O'NEILL. WITH AMPLE SHEAR,
NO CIN AND AND A BAND OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPES, WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ORGANIZATION OF THE
STORMS IS MESSY AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREATS IN THE EAST. LATER THIS EVENING, A SECONDARY AREA
OF STORMS WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN
THE LATER TIMING, HEAVY RAIN AND SOME POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NORTH
PLATTE LATER THIS EVENING, INDICATE PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. PWATS IN THE LATEST 3KM NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NORTH
PLATTE (19Z THIS AFTERNOON) INDICATE A SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING WITH
FORECAST PWATS OF NEARLY 1.9 INCHES. THIS COMPARES TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX OF 1.5 INCHES FOR JUNE 25TH. THE WESTERN
ACTIVITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE EASTERN STORMS MID EVENING
LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. QPF'S WITH THE
LATEST HRRR AND 3KM NAM SOLNS DEVELOP A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO O'NEILL. THIS
AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING H850 LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TONIGHT, DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. MY MAIN CONCERNS
FOR FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SW NEBRASKA WHERE 2 TO 5
INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL LAST EVENING. STORMS WILL TRACK INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA FRIDAY
LEADING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARMER AIR
WILL PUSH NORTH BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
90S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LINE OF STORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION IS IN DOUBT HOWEVER AS MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKENS TRANSITIONING SOUTH. THE LATEST SWODY3 HAS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS, HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE LATEST NBM ARE ISOLATED AT BEST.
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, FORCES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY, READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S FOR SUNDAY. WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST, THEN DRIFTING EAST INTO THE FA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPORARILY ENDING. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING,
PEAKING DURING THE 01 TO 05Z TIME FRAME. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL
OFF TO AROUND 2 SM WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH 40 KTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AROUND 05Z WITH THE THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 3000 TO 5000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 25000 FT AGL
THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 23Z THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 01 TO 05Z THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL OFF
TO AROUND 4SM WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 3500 FT AGL. CEILINGS WILL
RANGE FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 25000 FT
AGL THURSDAY MORNING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ010-027>029-038-058-
059-069>071.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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