348
FXUS63 KLBF 261911
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
211 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER EACH DAY.
- HEAT LOOKS TO BRIEFLY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SOME ON SATURDAY.
- DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (20-40%), HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS WANING CUMULUS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS WAS OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF MODEST LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KSUX. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ENCROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE HAS EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED THE RICHER MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR KLNK SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS. THE
RESULT OF THIS IS MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY (THOUGH STILL ADEQUATE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP) AND DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING
MECHANISM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH OF A
CAPPING INVERSION AROUND H75 THAT SHOULD HOLD THINGS IN CHECK GIVEN
THE LACK OF LIFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH
(75F AT VTN AS OF 1845Z) TO THE LOW 80S SOUTH (81F AT IML). THOUGH A
FEW MORE DEGREES ARE LIKELY TO BE TACKED ONTO THIS, MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME MINOR ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR
IN AREAS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE GREATER
TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES SUCH AS THE PINE RIDGE, HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE AS FLOW CARRIES IT EAST. DON'T BELIEVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN ZONES IS GREAT
ENOUGH FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF LOW-END POPS AND SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY AS A RESULT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 60S. STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REMAIN STEADY OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY,
MANY LOCATIONS REPORT LOW TO MIDDLE 60S DEW POINTS. BELIEVE THERE TO
BE SOME THREAT FOR FOG TONIGHT CITING CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AND
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. BOTH SREF AND HREF OUTPUT FAVORS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH PROBABILITIES OF FALLING BELOW 1SM CLIMB TO AROUND
20-50%. WILL INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NOW FOCUSING ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BUT ALSO WILL INCLUDE TYPICAL PROBLEM VALLEYS.
SHOULD FOG DEVELOP, IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A LONG-LASTING
CONCERN...ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TO
END THE WEEK. ALOFT, HEIGHTS CLIMB BEHIND DEPARTING NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL EJECT OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A MODEST DRYLINE
WILL SETUP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A MOISTURE TONGUE EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA UP INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING THAT
RESIDUAL SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (SBCIN) ERODES THROUGH
THE DAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG LIFE VIA THE DRYLINE
CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
IN A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST ARC THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE, AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE THANKS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90F BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT WITH HREF PAINTING 80%+ PROBABILITIES
OF EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING 3500-4500 J/KG MUCAPE IN THE AREA. WITH WESTERLY H5 FLOW
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, BELIEVE SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR MULTICELL
TO QUASI-SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AS SURFACE FLOW LARGELY REMAINS OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND 0-6KM BWD VALUES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF DCAPE AND 0-3KM MAX THETA-E DIFFERENCES, 1500+ J/KG AND
< -30C, BELIEVE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH WARM AND DRY
BOUNDARY LAYERS. THIS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO STRONG COLD POOL
GENERATION AND AS A RESULT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WHILE SHEAR
VECTORS APPEAR TO BE ORTHOGONAL TO THE SURFACE DRYLINE, STORM
PROPENSITY TO REMAIN DISCRETE FOR LONG IS IN DOUBT. BECAUSE OF THIS,
BELIEVE ANY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE
GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THOUGH SLIGHTLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE SRH, BELIEVE HIGH LCLS AND
UNFAVORABLE STORM MODE WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY TORNADO THREAT.
BELIEVE STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 3PM CDT (20Z) AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING EAST. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY
RAIN EVENTS, BELIEVE IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THAT BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO 2" OR LESS AND FALL GENERALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW LESS
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE, A TRAILING COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL UNLIKELY EXHIBIT
MUCH IN TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS, A STOUT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL SET
UP AS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP IN RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THANKS TO PROLONGED FETCH FROM THE
GULF MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS DEPICT BROAD UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR. USUALLY THIS IS SLIGHTLY OVERSTATED AND BELIEVE THE NBM
MEDIAN IS CLOSER TO THE OUTCOME I BELIEVE WILL OCCUR. THIS PAINTS A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 70F BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. TO BACK THIS UP, SREF PROBABILITIES OF > 70F DEW POINTS
PEAK AROUND 50% FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED MUGGINESS, HEAT CONCERNS WILL ARISE. FOR NOW, HAVE A FEW
AREAS REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (HEAT INDEX VALUES > 100F).
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE, LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE
ADVISORIES FOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST ZONES. WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES
REMAINING IN PLACE, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL FOLLOW THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER AND
AS A RESULT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY MAY RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD STILL SURPASS 3500 J/KG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC,
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AREAS OF MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE. THE LACK OF MORE
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A GREATER DISCRETE
STORM MODE THREAT AND CAP ANY HAIL THREAT AS A RESULT WHILE
MAINTAINING A GREATER DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. DAY-OVER-DAY,
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 0.25" FOR BOTH THE CALENDAR DAY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR: REACHING ABOUT 20% FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY
EXPECTED, THIS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED AND THUS ANY THREAT FOR HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE LOW. BEHIND
THE FRONT, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
FIRE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND ENCROACH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING. THIS MAY PRESENT A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THIS POTENTIAL THOUGH BELIEVE ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED BY THIS TIME.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...GENERAL ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE INNER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER NORTH, A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
EVENTUALLY, RIDGING ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND WITH IT COME SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES. NAEFS GUIDANCE HINTS AT
VALUES MODERATING A FEW DEGREES AND WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW,
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO SEE A NOTABLE BOOST. LATEST DETERMINISTIC
VALUES HOVER BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES. MEANWHILE,
75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES SUGGEST FAIRLY EXPANSIVE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S. BELIEVE IN THE COMING DAYS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
TREND UP THOUGH THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNAL FOR HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS VALUES, OR ECWMF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX ANOMALIES, AT THIS
TIME. REGARDING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, DAILY CHANCES EXIST THROUGH
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LARGELY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW INTERACTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. RIDGE
BREAKDOWN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
EXPANSIVE PROBABILITIES AROUND THAT TIME THOUGH VARIATIONS WITHIN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PRECLUDES GREATER CERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING CLOUDINESS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE AS MODEST LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST. EXPECTING A RETURN TO CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
BELIEVE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS AT
BOTH LBF AND VTN WITH HREF GUIDANCE HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR
SEEING DEGRADED FLIGHT RULES. WENT FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE AND
INTRODUCE IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS FOR LBF AND VTN RESPECTIVELY.
BELIEVE THIS MAY BE CLEANED UP WITH LATER FORECASTS BUT EVEN IF
THIS OCCURS, THE WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS APPEARS BRIEF AND
ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HOURS. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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