799
FXUS63 KLBF 280553
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN
PLACE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, FROM NEAR BRIDGEPORT TO
NORTH OF PINE BLUFFS. THIS IS BEHIND A SURFACE DRYLINE WITHIN A WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR THE HWY 61 CORRIDOR.
FURTHER EAST, A DIFFUSE SURFACE WARM FRONT BISECTS THE SANDHILLS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM NEAR VALENTINE TO AINSWORTH TO NEAR
CHAMBERS. BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MUCH RICHER THETA- E IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
THIS PRESENTS A RATHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHEST IN THE HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IMPACTING WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS
CONVECTION, AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THESE STORMS ENCOUNTER THE RICHER
MOISTURE TO THE EAST, SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THEY
CROSS HWY 61. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS AMPLE FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION, ESPECIALLY AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS BY LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH, WITH A
COMBINATION OF THE STORMS REACHING THE RICHER MOISTURE AND THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD REACH THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR BY LATE EVENING, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE BASED CIN INCREASES. IT IS
WITHIN THIS WINDOW WHERE SOME INSTANCES OF 60 TO 70MPH WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A SECOND, AND MUCH LESS CERTAIN, THREAT MAY EVOLVE FROM THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. THOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY OBVIOUS, SHOULD STORMS FORM ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WOULD BE MOST
PROBABLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY, AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS, A TORNADO OR TWO
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM. STORM
FORMATION REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN, AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STORMS WANE TONIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. BROAD, AND STRONG, MOISTURE ADVECTION TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BOOST DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S,
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83. A DRYLINE WILL AGAIN BE
POSITIONED ACROSS PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. EAST OF HWY 83, AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S TOMORROW, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESSES IN SENSITIVE GROUPS,
AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TOMORROW IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE
PLANNED.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PANHANDLE, MOVING EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A RATHER SIMILAR THINKING FOR TODAY IS IN PLACE FOR
TOMORROW. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS MOVE
EAST, AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND GROW UPSCALE.
ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY MAY AGAIN LEAD TO
MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS VERY LOW AT BEST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, AS BROAD ZONAL
FLOW PERSIST ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE THAN A FEW SHORTWAVES
TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOCATION OF
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL DRIVE THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY, BUT AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF STORMS LOOKS TO
EXIST NEARLY EACH DAY. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN FOR NOW, THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, AND HEAT CONCERNS LOOK TO
REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE KLBF TERMINAL
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 00Z-06Z, AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS, AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
KVTN, AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED A MENTION ATTM. LLWS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE KVTN TERMINAL UNTIL 13Z, WITH WS020/20045KT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS, GENERALLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 10KT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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