502
FXUS63 KLBF 281124
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL
CUSTER COUNTY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S THIS AFTERNOON.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE
MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS, AND EVEN THE UPPER 90S FAR SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONE
FOCUS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH, DRAPED FROM NEAR
CHAMBERLAIN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH VALENTINE, BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH OSHKOSH IN GARDEN COUNTY. SOME OF THE LATEST
CAMS INCLUDING THE 3KM NAM DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CHERRY COUNTY. IF
STORMS DO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, UPSCALE GROWTH MAY LEAD TO A
CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OTHER ISOLATED
STORMS INITIATING IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, WITH
SPCAPES AS HIGH AS 3000 TO OVER 4000 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM STORM CLUSTERS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, GIVEN
PWATS FROM 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES AVAILABLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH COOLER HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S NORTH CENTRAL
TO THE THE MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTHWEST. THERE A 5 TO 8 DEGREE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPERATURES,
SO CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IS BELOW AVERAGE. REGARDING POPS, CHANCES
INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. THERE IS ALSO A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, MEANING
A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AFTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING, DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S FOR
MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LOWS CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
BY FRIDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY), WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOW 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE KLBF TERMINAL
BETWEEN 03Z-06Z, AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS, AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. AT KVTN, VCTS INCLUDED FROM 23Z UNTIL 02Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS, GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 10KT TODAY, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...ROBERG
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