662
FXUS63 KLBF 290616
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
116 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR DAILY
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS
TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL TRIGGER SOME ELEVATED
STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS,
BUT SOME LARGER HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. OF NOTE, SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST VERY
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING MCS BY LATE EVENING TO
EARLY MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE RELATIVELY LOW IN THIS DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH A
FEW MODELS HINTING AT THIS, IT'S WORTH A MENTION.
WHILE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL COMES TO AN END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
(BY 1 AM CT), SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY SEVERE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ON HOW CONTINUING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING MAY IMPACT SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER ON SUNDAY. STILL, SPC'S MARGINAL RISK SEEMS VALID AS
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SUNDAY'S STORMS, BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN US BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO QUIETER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO DRIER WEATHER, THIS
RIDGE WILL ALSO HERALD IN SOME COOLER, SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY RISING
INTO THE UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY.
NEAR DAILY ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS OF IMPACT AND TIMING IS LOW AND THEREFORE,
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE ENVIRONMENT.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STEADILY RISE BACK INTO THE MID
90S BY FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 25 TO 30 C RANGE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE KLBF TERMINAL
MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z-06Z MONDAY, AND HAVE INCLUDED -TSRA. AT
KVTN, VCTS INCLUDED FROM 06Z UNTIL 12Z AND AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD AFTER 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH INCREASING CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...ROBERG
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