202
FXUS63 KLBF 292353
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
653 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR DAILY
CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY EVENING. AS THESE STORMS ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES) ,
THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. TIMING OF SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY BETWEEN 7PM CT AND 11PM CT, ALTHOUGH A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY INITIATE EARLIER OR LAST LONGER.
GREATEST THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL INITIALLY AS THE STORMS
REMAIN DISCRETE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STORMS CONGEAL AND
FORM A LINE AND DAMAGING WINDS (OVER 70 MPH POSSIBLE) BECOME THE
MAIN THREAT. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BEFORE EXITING BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE LATEST CAMS
MODELS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT THE
GENERAL THINKING WITH REGARDS TO GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA,
BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS AND HAIL, ANOTHER POTENTIAL THREAT WILL
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED, WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER AN INCH AND
PWAT VALUES IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE, SOME LOW LYING AREAS OR
SMALL STREAMS MAY SEE SOME BRIEF RISES OR PONDING OF WATER. WITH THE
RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS THROUGH OUR REGION,
NOT EXPECTING TRAINING OF STORMS TO INCREASE FLOODING CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN US BY
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO DRIER WEATHER, THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO
HERALD IN SOME COOLER, SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY.
NEAR DAILY ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS OF IMPACT AND TIMING IS LOW, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
GREATER PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENVIRONMENT.
IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STEADILY RISE BACK INTO THE MID
90S BY FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 25 TO 30 C RANGE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO NEAR NORMALS
(MID TO UPPER 80S).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, ENDING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY
IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AT 10-20 KTS WITH VFR TO PREVAIL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
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