561
FXUS63 KLBF 010632
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
132 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5)WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
- NEAR DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S;
LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S).
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
(CAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND A
BROAD AREA OF SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND AS INSTABILITY WANES
AFTER SUNSET, STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY. INCONSISTENCIES
ARE ABUNDANT AMONGST THE HI-RES MODELS AND THEREFORE LOCATIONS OF
IMPACT ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, MANY OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INITIATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH STORMS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID TO
LATE EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BLANKETED MUCH OF THE REGION IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 TO 25 PERCENT) DUE TO THE INCONSISTENCIES,
BUT ADDED A SMALL REGION OF 30 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE
HEAD INTO TOMORROW AND THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, SEVERE STORMS COME TO AN END BY LATE
EVENING, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWERS
THOUGH SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S ON
TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
SOME MILD WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A STEADY
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THURSDAY.
NEAR DAILY ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATIONS OF IMPACT AND TIMING IS LOW, THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
GREATER PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL UNCERTAIN, THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE ON
FRIDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONGER AND AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE FRIDAY STORMS.
ALSO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW, BUT AS WITH MOST SUMMER
STORMS, GREATEST TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING WHICH MAY UNFORTUNATELY IMPACT HOLIDAY
CELEBRATIONS. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THE HOLIDAY STORM
POTENTIAL AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ENVIRONMENT.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME. ALSO THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
FALL FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON FRIDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP FOR THE
WEEKEND FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
21Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS AND
BECOME SCATTERED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY AFFECT THE KVTN AND
KLBF TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH KLBF WITH A BETTER CHANCE
AFTER 02Z. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM, THOUGH WILL CONSIDER
INCLUDING IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 18012G20KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...ROBERG
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