145
FXUS63 KLBF 011733
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
WESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL REACH THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING BY MID
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
A FEW OF THE CAMS INITIATE STORM DEVELOP FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS AFTER 21Z, WITH UPSCALE GROWTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE, WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. OTHERS BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FROM THE
WEST WITH A SLOWER TIMING AND LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. AS A RESULT LIMITED POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE,
GIVEN STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSER RATES, MLCAPES 1500-2500
J/KG AND 35KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL
SHEAR FROM SOUTHERLY UP TO 700MB, TO WESTERLY AT 600MB AND
HIGHER SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT CURVED AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPH. A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN STORMS AFTER
SUNSET. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND REACH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE
WEST, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE ONGOING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, AND COULD AFFECT FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WHILE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN, INSTABILITY AND FORCING MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER AND AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
ALL SO POSSIBLE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED AT MOST, SO
SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE STORMS. TIMING OF STORMS FAVOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WHICH MAY UNFORTUNATELY
IMPACT HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON STORM COVERAGE AND IMPACTS.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90 AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH VERY STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS SOME
HAIL. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KULIK
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