319
FXUS63 KLBF 111759
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1259 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
- A WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S
ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK.
- ANOTHER TROUGH MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES AS LEEWARD TROUGHING REMAINS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE SOME ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT
REMAINS TO OUR WEST, COULD SEE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR IS MARGINAL,
BUT THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY, AND SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS FARTHER
TO THE EAST TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WELL. WAA INCREASES IN
THE MID-LEVELS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, AND ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEAR POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST FRIDAY WITH THE AREA
BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM AS
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/DEW POINTS MIX OUT SOME. DEEP MIXING
ACROSS KANSAS SCOURS OUT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH THE
DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA. HIGHS
AREA WIDE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED.
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS CONVECTION AGAIN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
SATURDAY THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SWING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR TWO
CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUING TO SERVE FOR POTENTIAL
SHOWER/THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL COOL SOME INTO THE 70S
SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCATTERED AREAS OF
RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WARM RIGHT BACK UP MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA INTO CANADA. ANOTHER TROUGH APPEARS
IT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN SANDHILLS, INCLUDING KVTN TERMINAL, WITH WIND GUST OF
25 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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