463
FXUS63 KLBF 121119
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 61. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS, WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING
THREATS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
CURRENTLY, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WHICH HAS PROMOTED SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR HWY 281. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT ANY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE DIURNAL MIXING, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S. NEAR AND JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONT, LOCAL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD PROMOTE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 60S, AMID EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE HWY 61
CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH/WARM FRONT, SOMEWHERE NEAR HWY 20 AND
WEST OF HWY 61. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODEST (H5 FLOW ~15-
25KTS), ENOUGH LOW LEVEL TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL PROMOTE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS BEFORE STORMS
LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE EVENING. THOUGH NOT OBVIOUS FOR
NOW, A BRIEF TORNADO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
WARM FRONT IN THE BACKED SURFACE FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, AND MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND COULD AGAIN LEAD
TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS DRAGS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SANDHILLS, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ITS WAKE. LONG,
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION BEING UNCLEAR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA, WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO AND SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO SUNDAY, AS
THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES
EAST. PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, AND EVEN
APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE CLIMO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING BENEFICIAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AS WITH SATURDAY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF HWY 83 ON SUNDAY, AGAIN DRIVEN BY HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE BRIEFLY EXPECTED ON MONDAY, AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS BREAK IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS AN UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WITH SOME THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO
DEPART THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO NEAR AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
80S. A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE WANES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH APPROACHING UPPER LOW PRESSURE COULD LEAD
TO PRECIPITATION YET AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
PATCHY FOG PERSISTS THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS, WITH LOCALLY MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED.
AFTER THIS FOG ERODES THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY FOR
TERMINALS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61.
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY AT AROUND 5 TO
10KTS. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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