541
FXUS63 KLBF 140527
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- STORMS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL,
STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THREATS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
A DEEP AND ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
ARIZONA, NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA CANADA. AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXISTS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES IN
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES FROM EASTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, EASTERN WYOMING AND CENTRAL MONTANA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ALONG NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SSW FLOW
ALOFT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST, WITH EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA, WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMO
AND SUGGESTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL. NBM PROBABILITIES OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE IS FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
NORTH PLATTE THROUGH MERRIMAN TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. PWAT VALUES
REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING BENEFICIAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WITH SATURDAY, A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF HWY 83 ON SUNDAY NEAR THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT,
DRIVEN BY HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WITH SOME THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH MAY STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN
TO 5 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH, SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES MAY
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME,
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LOW, BUT SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
SUNDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KULIK
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