012
FXUS63 KLBF 141742
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF HWY 83. LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MONDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BRINGS A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 70S)
PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SOME THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA, LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR IMPERIAL TO
THEDFORD TO AINSWORTH.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE PARENT H5
LOW WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OVERHEAD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS,
THE DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
BRINGING A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BOTH ALOFT AND IN THE LOW LEVELS, AS THE
PARENT LOW BEGINS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND INCREASES ASCENT.
IN TANDEM WITH THIS, INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. EXACTLY WHERE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED BY LATE
AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN, THOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF HWY 83. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MODEST (~25-35KT), A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT, IF STORMS CAN STAY AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE. SOME THREAT FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS THEN PERSIST EAST OF HWY 83 THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BEFORE THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL, AS THE DEFORMATION AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO WANE LATE EVENING AS THE LOW
DEPARTS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, AS HEIGHTS
RISE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. ISOLATED CONVECTION
INITIATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WYOMING LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD SURVIVE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW FOR NOW. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S, AS SKIES CLEAR AMID THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EJECTS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SANDHILLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A MODESTLY SHEARED AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. AS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS LOOK TO BE NEARLY BOUNDARY
PARALLEL IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT, AND SUGGESTS UPSCALE
GROWTH WOULD BE FAVORED. THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SOME HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP INITIALLY AS
WELL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW.
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY,
AS A RATHER INTERESTING SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OCCURS INTO LATE WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAY'S STORMS SLOWLY BEGINS TO
DEPART WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A SECONDARY UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO DROP DUE SOUTH OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS UPPER LOW
REMAINS NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EACH DAY. AS THE LOW FINALLY DEPARTS FRIDAY, HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND
BRINGS QUIETER CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOCAL VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED BELOW 5SM,
WHERE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AT KLBF AND KVTN, HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS FROM AROUND
20Z UNTIL 01Z, AS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. CLEARING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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