600
FXUS63 KLBF 160531
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1231 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOL FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE,
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- A MORE PROMINENT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN (1-2") SPANNING 48-72 HOURS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SETTLED INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THOUGH A MODEST DEW POINT GRADIENT WAS APPARENT FROM EAST
TO WEST, CONVERGENCE WAS GREATLY LIMITED AND AS A RESULT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE WEST. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON,
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH ERODING ANY LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL INHIBITION. THIS COMBINED WITH TERRAIN-ENHANCED LIFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STEER ACTIVITY INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VARIOUS SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE AS IT DOES, LIKELY DUE TO
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
EVEN THE MOST BULLISH OF SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN ANY ACTIVITY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 385. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW-END POPS MENTION
FOR THE FAR WESTERN SANDHILLS IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES AND MAINTAIN MESSAGING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS LOW. LATER TONIGHT, MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AS A SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND IN TURN, PREVENT OUR TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. VALUES SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH A
SELECT FEW PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE DAY WITH RESPECT TO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY IN THE DAY. A TRAILING COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTED INTO THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO POOL BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S (LOWER 70S FURTHER NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT), MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. THOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK, LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STRONG FORCING WITHIN
A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THUS UPSCALE GROWTH IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY WELL SATURATED PROFILE ABOVE A MODESTLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL SOMEWHAT WHILE
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY
DUE TO PRECIP LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS. POINT SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
ANOMALOUS PWATS WITH MODERATELY FAVORABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT. COMBINING THIS WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS INCLUDING 15
KNOTS OF MEAN WIND FLOW AND BUNKERS RIGHT-MOVER MOTIONS OF 10 KNOTS
OR LESS, BELIEVE HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY AND WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF
THE THREAT FOR SOME LOCAL HYDRO ISSUES. CAMS SUGGEST STRONGER CORES
COULD POTENTIALLY CONTAIN 1"+/HOUR RAIN RATES AND THE THREAT FOR
TRAINING STORMS INCREASES CONCERN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF ON HYDRO HEADLINES (WATCHES) UNTIL MORE
PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF CAN BE PINNED DOWN. FOR NOW,
EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT. AT PRESENT, THIS FAVORS THE SANDHILLS WHERE HIGHER
RAIN RATES CAN BE TOLERATED. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY GOING FORWARD.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...HEADING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY CUTOFF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND STALL OUT, LEADING TO A MULTI-DAY PRECIPITATION
EVENT THAT DRAWS IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FGEN FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN H5 LOW WILL
PROMOTE STRONG LIFT AND LEAD TO BOUTS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE FRONT WILL SOUTH AND EXPANSIVE RAIN AND CLOUDS, DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH A NEAR-PERSISTENCE FORECAST OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER EAST, AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY THOUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME. ALL THE
CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR THE LONG DURATION, SLOW RATE
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ANOMALOUS PWATS WITH VALUES EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, A REASONABLE FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS
PACIFIC ORIGIN, LARGELY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY, AND THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO PREVENT
PRECIPITATION VENTING AS WELL AS LIMIT STORM MOTION. THIS TRANSLATES
TO EXPANSIVE HIGH POPS WEDNESDAY (60-90%), CONTINUING THURSDAY (40-
70%), AND EVEN INTO EARLY FRIDAY (20-40%). NBM PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 1" QPF FOR THE 72-HOURS ENDING FRIDAY MORNING IS ANYWHERE
FROM 75-95% ANYWHERE IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, SUGGESTING
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS HIGH. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
NOTABLY THE EPS/GEFS, ARE SIMILARLY BULLISH WITH PROBABILITIES
PEAKING OVER THE SANDHILLS WITH 80-100%. WHILE THIS RAIN APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE BENEFICIAL TO MANY, FOLKS SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAVIER
AMOUNTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
TO WANE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND AND HELP TO FURTHER BOLSTER TEMPERATURES
WITH A RETURN TO MIDDLE 70S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 80S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. OVERALL, RIDGING IS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE SO POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS APPEARS LOW. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA AND POTENTIALLY REINTRODUCES
SOME COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION BEING IMPACTED. HAIL AND STRONG, ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES
BY MID-EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY
WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO AT LEAST 5 MILES BEING THE MAIN
IMPACTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...KULIK
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