315
FXUS63 KLBF 161126
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" EXPECTED FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE (HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
CURRENTLY, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS,
LOCATED NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF HWY 2. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 60S, UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FOR TODAY, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY FEATURES OF NOTE ARE AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING, AND A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING, THE
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AS WELL. BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BISECT THE
SANDHILLS, LOCATED ROUGHLY NEAR THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR. AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S, AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS,
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO ROBUST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON, INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ERODING INHIBITION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST AND LARGELY PARALLEL
TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS CLUSTERING AND QUICK UPSCALE
GROWTH, AND SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS THIS EVENING. ANY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO
INITIAL UPDRAFTS, BEFORE CLUSTERING AND SEEDING OF UPDRAFTS
LESSENS THE THREAT WITH TIME. THE BIGGEST THREAT COULD BE FOR
FLASH FLOODING, AS SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS COMBINES WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST (PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 90TH PERCENTILE) BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. RECENT HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SHOW A THREAT FOR A BROAD SWATH OF 1-2"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3"
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS ALONG WITH URBAN CORRIDORS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, POTENTIALLY
EXACERBATING A FLOODING THREAT WHERE EARLIER STRONGER STORMS
TRACK.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO PIVOT OVERHEAD. THIS, COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS, WILL
LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER DAY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80
REACHING THE LOW 70S. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH MORE MEAGER ON
WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY, AND LARGELY TEMPER A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. STILL, A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED, VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARDS INTO
THURSDAY, REMAINING NEARBY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS UPPER
LOW IS NEARBY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THOUGH NOT A
WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING, SHUNTING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO PUSH OVERHEAD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S BY SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE THEN BEGINS TO WANE AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO HINT AT ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING
A QUICK RETURN OF PRECIPITATION LOCALLY, AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE. BY THIS AFTERNOON, MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS, WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY, AT 10 TO 15KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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