123
FXUS63 KLBF 171739
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS INTO THURSDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN OF UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
CURRENTLY, STRATIFORM SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
GRADUALLY PIVOTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH
TIME THIS MORNING, WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD EXPECTED FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LOW. NEAR THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR, AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A PREMIUM TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER SOUTH, A MORE INTERESTING
EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD AND
OVERHEAD BY THIS AFTERNOON, A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE
ACROSS THE AREA. JUST AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW,
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED LOW TOP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER LOW-TOPPED
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVERSPREAD A
MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
THIS THREAT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY DEPART INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHUNT ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW EVENING. MUCH LIKE TODAY,
PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT BY FRIDAY MORNING, SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS BY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS FINALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT INTO SATURDAY, AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE OVERHEAD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS BRINGS STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND BOOSTS HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THEN QUICKLY DROPS
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
EJECTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS DRAGS A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS REMAINS LOW FOR NOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE APPROACHES THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
LOW, AND CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW FOR
NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS AND -SHRA CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY AT VTN WHILE
LBF MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED AND A CLEARING LINE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. EVEN SO, WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING MVFR UNTIL THE EVENING
THOUGH SCT LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
BELIEVE SOME FOG WILL THREATEN PRIMARILY NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
UNDER THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WOULD INCLUDE VTN.
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MORE HIT AND MISS THAN PREVAILING,
HOWEVER, ATTEMPTING TO TIME IT AT THIS RANGE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
AT BEST SO WILL CARRY A PREVAILING AND ALLOW ADJUSTMENTS WITH
LATER FORECASTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DEGRADED THROUGH THE
END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...NMJ
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