943
FXUS63 KLBF 180857
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S TO 80S INTO THE WEEKEND, ALONG
WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
COULD BRING A RETURN OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
CURRENTLY, SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS, ON THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, AND KEEP ANY THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AT BAY. PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS, COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEPART INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING,
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
IT APPEARS THE LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS
A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
HAS BEGUN TO POINT TOWARDS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWARD LIFTING FRONT. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD LEAD TO LIMITED
IMPACTS. THE FOCUS WITH THEN TURN TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT, WHICH GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH RESPECT TO. THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE LIFTS THE WARM FRONT INTO THE SANDHILLS, AND
DEVELOPS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THAT WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE, WITH A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AND
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BEING
INDICATED ON MUCH OF GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, UNTIL THE POSITIONING OF
THIS WARM FRONT CAN BE DETERMINED, CONFIDENCE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN LOW. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO DEPART INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH
LIKE FOR FRIDAY, A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
WITH RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN STILL, LIMITED FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT PLACES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION REGARDLESS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
(15-20%) SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH MESOSCALE
FEATURES WILL AGAIN DRIVE IF AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 80S ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT LOOK TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AT BAY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND OVERHEAD BY MONDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW REVOLVES AROUND THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, AND
HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS AS IT EJECTS SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK, TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION YET AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTS FOR TERMINALS IN THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA, WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH, AT LEAST
LOW-END VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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