684
FXUS63 KLBF 081140
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING
UP TO 5F BELOW NORMAL FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY, REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
(10F+) EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED, WITH PROBABILITIES NO
HIGHER THAN 25% ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AS THE AREA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS. TO THE SOUTH, EXPANSIVE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW AND MID-
LEVEL STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THIS WILL INTRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES TO MOST AND
EFFECTIVELY WORK TO QUELL ANY WARM UP TODAY. HIGHS AS A RESULT WILL
VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN MOST PERSISTENT, TO LOWER 70S FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61. WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG, WAA AND LIFT
WITHIN THIS NARROW LAYER WILL BE WEAK AND SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. THROUGH THE DAYTIME, STRONG FLOW OFF THE
SURFACE WILL LINGER AND ALLOW FROM BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. GUSTS WILL
LIKELY TOP 35 MPH, PERHAPS AS STRONG AS 45 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS,
AS SOUTHERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL EXIST WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND THESE
STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
OUTSIDE OF SHELTERED VALLEYS. THE RESULT WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
ROUGHLY 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
BROAD UPPER-RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY BY EARLY THURSDAY, WITH HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PULL A COOL FRONT SOUTH INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE
WEAK BUT DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE THIS USUALLY
WOULD SIGNAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, WINDS
LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY OCCURS.
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES NEAR THE HIGHWAY 385 CORRIDOR BY EARLY FRIDAY,
BUT RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN AS BROAD TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AND THIS COINCIDES WITH A RETURN OF LOW-END (< 25%)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EVEN WITH AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA, THE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WILL BE
POOR. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY GREATER SOURCE OF LIFT
LOCALLY WITH MOST IF NOT ALL THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF NEBRASKA. EVEN SO, THESE LIMITED POPS WILL DOT THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH EPS/GEFS
OUTLOOKS FAVOR WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN BUT RECENT TRENDS FROM THE EPS HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE QPF
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS BEARS
WATCHING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A MORE PREGRESSIVE COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST BRINGING
ANOTHER PREVIEW OF FALL WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 60S AND
70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR AS LOW STRATUS
SPREADS NORTH INTO THE AREA. EXPECTATION IS FOR BOTH LBF/VTN TO
FALL TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND
30 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT MAGNITUDE OF FLIGHT DEGRADATION,
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING, IS LOW. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON IF
STRATUS EXITS OR LINGERS. SHOULD IT LINGER, EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR FOR LBF
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONGER LLWS CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
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