121
FXUS63 KLBF 082142
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
442 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH SATURDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A SLIGHT COOLDOWN ALONG WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BEING ON TUESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 441 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE
PATCHY, BUT LOCALLY DENSE IS POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION, WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL
PUSH WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 15 TO 22 C RANGE INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL BRING MILD SURFACE HIGHS TO THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
EASILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
THESE WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED FIRE
CONCERNS TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE RH VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE, WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW 15 MPH. AT THIS TIME, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE
CONCERNS, BUT WITH FUELS CURING ACROSS THE REGION, SOME ELEVATED
CONCERNS ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE THOUGH WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE QPF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO
RETURN. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURNS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC PUSHES INTO THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AND WHILE MOISTURE IS MORE
ABUNDANT THAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY ISOLATED
KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS LOW FOR ANY ONE LOCATION.
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARRIVES ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. WHILE DETAILS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN STILL REGARDING THIS
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, LATEST PROBABILITIES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE REGION
SEEING 0.25 QPF BEING NEAR 20 PERCENT. WHILE NOT A SIGNIFICANT
PERCENTAGE, IT IS BY FAR THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGHS ON MONDAY DROP
TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 60S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK. FOR LOWS,
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE MID 40S TOWARD
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY OVER 6000 FEET.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...KULIK
LONG TERM...KULIK
AVIATION...KULIK
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