025
FXUS63 KLBF 102025
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND, ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS (SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY).
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY DUE TO
THE OVERLAP OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE
HIGHS WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT, AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ AND INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEPART OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS INCREASING ASCENT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT. THOUGH MEAGER (MUCAPE ~500-750J/KG), SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR, AND NOT EXPECTING STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO VEER AND WEAKEN.
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION THEN PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY, AS WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MILES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BOOST HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LUCKILY, THIS
COINCIDES WITH A PUSH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA,
AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS FURTHER TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (H85 FLOW ~45-55KTS),
THOUGH CENTERED A TAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD AGAIN LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83 INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASED
MECHANICAL MIXING BENEATH THE CORE OF THE STRONG LLJ SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LARGELY DECOUPLED EAST OF HWY 83, AND KEEP WINDS
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS A CONSEQUENCE,
VERY MILD LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. IN FACT, THE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY APPROACH
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. IN FACT, BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA. UNFORTUNATELY, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE USHERED
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY FALLING HUMIDITY
VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT. ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, A DEEP CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, BEFORE EVENTUALLY EJECTING EASTWARD LATE WEEK. THE
CONSEQUENCE LOCALLY OF ALL THIS IS A MUCH COOLER DAY MONDAY (HIGHS
IN 50S), WHICH WILL MODERATE BACK TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TOWARDS LATE WEEK. WITH A LACK OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE VICINITY
EARLY TO MIDWEEK, ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY MAY REMAIN TIED TO LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THOUGH THESE SHOULD LEAD TO LIMITED IMPACT TO
AVIATION.
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AT 10 TO
15KTS. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35KTS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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