881
FXUS63 KLBF 112347
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE (HIGHS IN
THE 70S) FOR MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO THE MIDDLE 80S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
THOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MILES PER HOUR OBSERVED.
BY THIS EVENING, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH
INTO THE PANHANDLE. IT IS ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MEAGER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT KEEPS INSTABILITY WEAK AT BEST, WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG IN PLACE. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS ADEQUATE, THE
LACK OF BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP ANY STORMS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. BY
TONIGHT, EXPECT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO THEN OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT AND
THIS MORNING, BELIEVE THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASED
MECHANICAL MIXING BENEATH THIS STOUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY OVERNIGHT, AND A VERY MILD MID-OCTOBER MORNING IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83. IN FACT, THE MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY
83.
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION, AND THE BIGGEST IMPACT LOCALLY WILL
BE FIRE WEATHER WITH ITS PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS WILL QUICKLY FALL ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, AND PUSH HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE LOW 20S. THIS IS DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING IN AS WELL, WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF HWY 61 TOMORROW. AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 25 TO 35
MILES PER HOUR, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF HWY 83. THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN FOR NOW
IS THE LONGEVITY OF OVERLAPPING LOW HUMIDITY AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS. AS HUMIDITY BOTTOMS OUT LATE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THIS PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR
NOW, THOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT. THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE
WILL BE A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AS IT MIGRATES EAST FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH LATE WEEK. IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW,
A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT WILL PIVOT AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. THIS MOISTURE
ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND WILL LEAD TO OUR NEXT BEST
SHOT AT PRECIPITATION LOCALLY. AS OF NOW, THIS LOOKS TO BE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS BROAD EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ESTABLISHES LOCALLY. THIS INCREASED ASCENT COULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IT
WILL ALSO LEAD TO A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY SHOULD LEAD TO
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA AGAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 30KTS EXPECTED.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT FOR TERMINALS EAST
OF HWY 83. RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND AFFECT THE KVTN TERMINAL UNTIL 06Z.
TOMORROW MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND
LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN
STRENGTHEN LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
35KTS EXPECTED AGAIN.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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