002
FXUS63 KLBF 120907
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
407 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
- CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING
COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. THE DRIER AIR WILL LEAD
TO CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MIN RH WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 17 TO 25 PERCENT FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. DRIER AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUST
UP TO 45 MPH. THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND WEST OF HWY 83. HAVE DECIDED TO FORGO ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
AS MIN RH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT, WITH ONLY LOCALIZED
AREAS AROUND 17% AND WHEN THE LOWEST MIN RH EXIST WILL BE IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WANE.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOW 60S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASE MONDAY
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS WHERE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE HIGH
PLAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW, MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 20-30KT
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z-10Z, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z AND MOVE
QUICKLY EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
28KT AT KVTN 15Z-00Z AND 21KT AT KLBF 16Z-00Z. WINDS QUICKLY
DECOUPLE TO BELOW 10KT BY 01Z MONDAY.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...ROBERG
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