520
FXUS63 KLBF 130520
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
NEAR THE PINE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. A THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN 70S TO 80S) BRIEFLY RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS A RETURN OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
CURRENTLY, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA, WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, MUCH DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST, PROMOTING HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S.
THIS IS LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THESE CONCERNS WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN AND HUMIDITY RECOVERS
AFTER SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS QUICKLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH. IT IS HERE WHERE LOWS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S, AND FROST FORMATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE OPTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES. FURTHER SOUTH, BELIEVE ENOUGH WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION, ARRIVING
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE
AREA ALOFT, AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. BROAD LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO BROADLY INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MEAGER, CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THEN PERSISTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
BY LATE WEEK, THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW, STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
WILL AGAIN BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE INCREASED ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE CONCERNS
LOWERED, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AMID GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY, AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, AND BRING A RETURN OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STILL, CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME
MORE CLEAR WITH TIME. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THIS WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE, THOUGH MEAGER INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS TO
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 83. THE
COOLER HIGHS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 10KT. A BROKEN MID CLOUD DECK NEAR BKN080 AT KLBF AFTER
21Z INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ004-005-094.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...ROBERG
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