691
FXUS63 KLBF 140522
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SANDHILLS.
- THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
H5 ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WAS HIGHLY MERIDIONAL.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO. EAST OF THIS FEATURE, LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH,
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MANITOBA. A
SECOND LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE OREGON COAST. BETWEEN THE HIGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR CHICAGO, SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES EAST INTO KANSAS, MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CT RANGED FROM 53 DEGREES AT VALENTINE
TO 63 DEGREES AT IMPERIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS, WILL RETREAT
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, A
TANDEM OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO COLORADO. BELIEVE THE BULK OF THIS EVENING WILL BE DRY WITH
THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE LATER TIMING TREND WITH THIS
MORNING'S MODEL SOLNS, FOCUSED MY HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY MORNING
(12Z- 18Z) ACROSS THE AREA. QPF'S WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS OUR LOWER
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY (PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS) AND
PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL BE DELAYED REACHING GROUND LEVEL.
FORECAST QPF'S REMAIN LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES
AND ARE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS
IN MIND, WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS WHICH TOP
OUT IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY MORNING. WITH RESPECT TO
HIGHS TUESDAY: THE LATEST HIGH RES. SOLUTIONS, KEEP THE WARM
FRONT WELL OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY, RESULTING
IN COOLER HIGHS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE TO BLEND HIGHS MORE
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD LOWER THE CURRENT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING ADVECTED NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FROM
KANSAS. WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, WILL
NEED TO FURTHER MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 12Z HRRR, INDICATES A DECENT THREAT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WARM FRONT. THIS FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE NAM12
VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND A 35 TO 45 % PROBABILITY OF SFC
VISIBILITIES < 1SM IN THE LATEST SREF ENSEMBLES. WOULD LIKE TO
SEE THESE SREF NUMBERS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG BEFORE
MENTIONING THIS 36 HOURS OUT FROM NOW. WILL PASS ON MY CONCERNS
TO THE EVENING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
H5 LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OVER
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE
GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. NORMALLY, WOULD BE
CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THESE EXPECTED
WINDS. HOWEVER, WE WILL ADVECT 50-60 DEGREE DEW POINTS INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HOLD MINIMUM RH IN THE 45 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE. BY EVENING, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG AND EAST OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. ATTM
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE, FEEL THE
MAIN THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST OF NORTH
PLATTE PROPER. AS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT, THE LATEST SWODY3
HIGHLIGHTS THE PANHANDLE AND NW SANDHILLS WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
BELIEVE THERE IS A "TIGHT" WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AND TIMING OF AN APPROACHING JET STREAK. SPEED SHEAR IS
DECENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING H5 TROUGH HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING JET STREAK (IE. EVENING HOURS) DOES NOT COINCIDE
WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY-IE. MAX. CAPE (LATE AFTERNOON).
ATTM, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO COULD
REACH LOW END SEVERE CRITERIA, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR UNLIKELY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FWIW, THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT, THE FORECAST LOW
59 DEGREES FOR NORTH PLATTE THURSDAY MORNING WOULD BE A RECORD
HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THAT DATE. THE WARM MINIMUM TEMPS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST EFI AND SOT
FORECAST. AS FRONT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY, HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. BEYOND THURSDAY
NIGHT, AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE COOLEST WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER
40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS BY 08Z AT KLBF
AND 13Z AT KVTN. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BY 16Z AT KLBF
AND 18Z AT KVTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TOWARD 12Z AND SPREAD NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. -SHRA EXPECTED AT KLBF AND KVTN MAINLY FROM
14Z-18Z. THE EXACT TIMING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE UPCOMING 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SANDHILLS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...ROBERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page