501
FXUS63 KLBF 141150
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
- FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
- TEMPERATURES WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TODAY AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A SW TROF MOVES
INTO THE AREA WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASE THIS MORNING. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS, THEY
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AROUND 0.10 TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH, WITH
THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. KEPT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER AS THE COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND
INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS IS
EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. GIVEN THE
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND LIGHTER WINDS,
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE PATCHY TO POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY A LITTLE STRONGER
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH, BUT COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEATHER
A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR DENSE FOG, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BE A BRIEF WARM-UP AS WAA INCREASES WITH THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 15 TO 20
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUST OF 30 MPH OR GREATER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FROM SPC,
GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83. GENERALLY WOULD EXPECT THE GREATEST
TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BE BRIEF, BUT WOULD
EXPECT IT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA, THERE WILL
ALSO BE A NARROW AREAS OF 750 TO 1100 J/KG OF MU CAPE AND DECENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AT
THIS TIME SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, HOWEVER MORE MODERATE RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83, WHERE HALF AN
INCH OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES TO SEE IF ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FUTURE FORECAST TREND
COOLER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...GOMEZ
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