116
FXUS63 KLBF 252341
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDS BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. FURTHER
SOUTH, CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THOUGH NOT AS EXPANSIVE AS LAST NIGHT.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE RAIN IS THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WITH THIS SYSTEM. GUSTS OF 30 MPH
OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED NEAR CALGARY, ALBERTA, WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA. ON SATELLITE, A BROAD EXPANSE OF STRATUS IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST. THIS INCLUDES THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
TONIGHT, THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TRACKING EAST.
HOWEVER, SETTING UP OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TONIGHT, LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED,
INTRODUCING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. TO
THE SOUTHWEST, WINDS REMAIN CALMER, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LYING REGIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
HOWEVER, THE STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT. THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.
TOMORROW, THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA CONTINUES PUSHING EAST, AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TOMORROW EVENING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIAL. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA PEAKING INTO THE LOWER
60S. WINDS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS, WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 30 MPH AT TIMES.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL WILL BE THE MAIN CATALYST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CHANCES APPEAR BETTER AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY, WITH WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH.
ALSO OF NOTE, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION. IF
THE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING
IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. SOME OF THE EUROPEAN AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW, BUT STILL, CHANCES REMAIN LOW. EVEN IF SNOW WERE TO MIX IN
WITH THE SYSTEM, GIVEN THAT SOIL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA ARE MOSTLY STILL IN THE 50S AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, DO NOT THINK THAT THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. STILL, MIGHT SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE, WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION, WITH
WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER BOUT OF
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COOL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ONCE THE REMAINING
RAIN SHOWERS TRACK OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING, LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK, NEARLY SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S. THIS IS NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AS
OUR AVERAGE HIGHS IN LATE OCTOBER ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH THE
AVERAGE LOW AROUND 29.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL AGAIN HAMPER AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. ONGOING STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWEST, BRINGING IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
TO AREA TERMINALS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
PRECISE MAGNITUDES OF FOG BUT LOW STRATUS IS MORE CERTAIN AND
SHOULD LEAD TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT LBF AND IFR AT VTN. EXPECT
VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH LINGERING LOW STRATUS THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RICHIE
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...NMJ
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