005
FXUS63 KLBF 261017 CCA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
442 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS MODERATE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN THOUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA,
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH
THE DAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG WILL CONTINUE IN SPOTS THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND MONTANA BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THOUGH THE NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KTS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MOISTURE AS IT ADVECTS
NORTHWARD. COULD AGAIN SEE LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY ADVECTION FOG,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INCREASING UPPER JET DYNAMICS
WILL AID IN LIFT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THE MENTIONED A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA, AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AND HUMIDITY DROPS TO AROUND 30%. FARTHER TO THE EAST, SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG MID-LEVEL WAA
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED, AND HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSES OFF AT H5 ACROSS
NEBRASKA TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WHEN COUPLED
WITH A NEAR 1035 MB HIGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, BUT SOME
LIGHT WRAP-AROUND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE H5
UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL VICINITY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO FROM THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON.
WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER AVIATION
OPERATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE LBF TERMINAL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LARGELY IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
MORNING SUNDAY. BREEZY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR THE DAY BEFORE FALLING AGAIN
TOMORROW EVENING.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...NMJ
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