633
FXUS63 KLBF 270908
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
408 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE.
- SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
- CHILLY TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE, WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY. DOWNSTREAM AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE SCALE LIFT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. SCATTERED
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOTED ON THE RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO UP THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A DRY LAYER
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SO FAR PREVENTED ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG, CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS. AS THE WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LOW DEEPENS AND BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE PANHANDLE. AS A
RESULT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
WITH THE LOWER CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO REMAIN. THIS WILL HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST. GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME CONCERN FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITY DROPS TO
AROUND 30%, ALONG WITH THE GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE AS THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO OVERCOME.
AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, EXPECT A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. A
BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND AS FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS SWING ACROSS THE AREA, SHOWERS SHOULD
BLOSSOM JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AS CHANCES
LOOK VERY SLIGHT, BUT THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLOSES OFF AT H5 ACROSS
NEBRASKA TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SURFACE LOW WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREA SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLES SUGGESTS GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE
WILL BE COMMON FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DO DECOUPLE SOME TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, WITH THE H5 UPPER LOW CENTER
LOCATED ACROSS TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST LOWS
SO FAR THIS SEASON, WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO DOMINATE AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AND
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 60S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED,
WHICH IS TYPICAL IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL: EXPECT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL. SOME LIFR
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 300 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING MONDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO 2500 TO 6000 FT AGL
AFTER 22Z MONDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL: EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1000 TO
2500 FT AGL. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 17Z MONDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2500 TO 7000 FT AGL.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RICHIE
LONG TERM...RICHIE
AVIATION...BUTTLER
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