903
FXUS63 KLBF 272035
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS
IN LOW TO MIDDLE 50S) ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE AND LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CURRENTLY, A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE HWY
61 CORRIDOR, WITH STRONG WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
ALSO IN PLACE BEHIND THIS SURFACE TROUGH, LEADING TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST,
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
50S, ALONG WITH INSTANCES OF DRIZZLE.
FOR THIS EVENING, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE A THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, PROGGED TO EJECT
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY. AS THIS FRONT CROSSES THE AREA,
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AT LEAST MEAGER MUCAPE IN PLACE, AND
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THAT SAID,
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST, EXITING TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.25" ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE ENOUGH
MECHANICAL MIXING TO KEEP WINDS BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS ALOFT. THIS LEADS
TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SUN TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THAT HAVE BEEN CLOUDY MUCH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
DEEPENS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME, STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS POSITIONS THE LOCAL AREA IN A CONSTRICTING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND WILL PROMOTE STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MIXING OCCURS (BOTH DIURNALLY AND
MECHANICALLY). UNFORTUNATELY, THESE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THIS IS DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S,
AND COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
AS PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES ALOFT FOR MIDDLE AND
LATE WEEK. THIS IS AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN
US AND DEEP TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INTO
LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE BY THE
WEEKEND, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN
OF HIGHS IN THE 60S AS WE TURN THE CALENDAR TO NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST FOR TERMINALS NEAR
AND EAST OF HWY 83 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, AND LEAD TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CIGS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING,
WITH A THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING, AND REMAIN STRONG. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KTS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page