244
FXUS63 KLBF 282350
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
650 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN LOW TO MIDDLE 50S) PERSISTS INTO LATE WEEK ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE AREA UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEBRASKA, WITHIN THE BLACK HILLS LEE
SIDE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET,
AND QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
ENCROACHING SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WEST OF HWY 61
WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED FURTHER EAST, WHERE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER (10- 15MPH).
FOR TOMORROW, EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AREA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO MIGRATE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ANY WARM
ADVECTION LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK, AND THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT, HIGHS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY 83, WHERE LIGHT NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT,
A SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA, AND DRAG
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT SHOULD
LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THESE
BREEZY WINDS WILL UNFORTUNATELY COMBINE WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, AND
LEAD TO WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEEN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
WINDS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MILES PER HOUR EXPECTED. AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE
OVERLAP OF THE GUSTIEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITY, AS WINDS LOOK
TO PEAK LATE MORNING AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS COULD LIMIT THE FIRE CONCERNS SOMEWHAT, AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN PREVAILS ALOFT INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND,
PROMOTING PERSISTENTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INTO
LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 20S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY, AS A
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS. BEHIND THIS
SURFACE TROUGH, INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COULD ALSO BRING
INCREASING FIRE CONCERNS AGAIN, AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GOING FORWARD. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE AREA INTO MONDAY,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SLOWLY WANE OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO BELOW 10 KNOTS BY
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KULIK
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